|
|
WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: NAVIGATING GLOBAL DIVERGENCES
Table A12. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Current Account Balance (continued)
(Percent of GDP)
Projections
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2028
Latin America and the
Caribbean (continued)
-3.5
-2.2
-1.8
-2.7
-2.1
-0.4
-2.0
-2.4
-1.8
-1.5
-1.3
Costa Rica
-3.4
-2.1
-3.6
-3.0
-1.3
-1.0
-2.5
-3.7
-2.8
-2.3
-1.6
Dominica
-4.7
-7.7
-8.9
-43.7
-35.6
-35.4
-27.6
-27.9
-27.1
-19.9
-12.9
Dominican Republic
-1.8
-1.1
-0.2
-1.5
-1.3
-1.7
-2.8
-5.6
-3.7
-3.5
-2.9
Ecuador
-2.2
1.1
-0.2
-1.2
-0.1
2.9
3.2
2.4
1.5
1.6
1.8
El Salvador
-3.2
-2.3
-1.9
-3.3
-0.4
1.6
-4.3
-6.6
-4.5
-4.5
-4.4
Grenada
-10.7
-8.9
-11.6
-12.9
-10.1
-16.4
-13.0
-17.0
-14.8
-12.7
-11.5
Guatemala
-1.2
1.0
1.2
0.9
2.4
5.0
2.2
1.4
2.4
1.8
0.0
Guyana
-3.4
1.5
-4.9
-29.0
-68.8
-16.3
-25.9
23.8
18.0
20.0
47.7
Haiti
-5.1
-1.7
-2.2
-2.9
-1.1
0.4
0.4
-2.3
-2.9
-2.3
-0.4
Honduras
-4.7
-3.1
-1.2
-6.6
-2.6
2.8
-4.7
-3.2
-5.2
-4.9
-3.9
Jamaica
-3.0
-0.3
-2.7
-1.5
-1.9
-1.1
1.0
-0.8
-1.2
-1.7
-2.2
Mexico
-2.7
-2.3
-1.9
-2.1
-0.4
2.0
-0.6
-1.2
-1.5
-1.4
-0.9
Nicaragua
-9.9
-8.5
-7.2
-1.8
5.9
3.6
-3.1
-1.3
2.1
0.2
-1.7
Panama
-8.6
-7.5
-5.8
-7.9
-5.8
-0.3
-3.0
-3.9
-3.6
-3.2
-2.5
Paraguay
-0.2
4.3
3.0
-0.2
0.4
3.6
-0.8
-6.0
0.6
0.1
1.3
Peru
-4.6
-2.2
-0.8
-1.2
-0.6
1.1
-2.2
-4.1
-1.9
-2.1
-1.5
St. Kitts and Nevis
-8.3
-12.3
-10.6
-7.2
-5.8
-10.9
-5.9
-3.4
-2.5
-2.0
-1.0
St. Lucia
-0.7
-6.5
-2.0
1.4
5.5
-15.2
-7.0
-2.3
-0.7
-0.4
-0.1
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
-14.7
-12.9
-11.7
-10.3
-2.3
-15.7
-22.7
-19.5
-17.6
-18.4
-8.9
Suriname
-15.3
-4.8
1.9
-3.0
-11.3
9.0
5.9
2.2
1.5
1.0
-0.5
Trinidad and Tobago
7.8
-3.3
6.0
6.8
4.4
-6.7
11.3
17.9
5.7
7.1
5.9
Uruguay
-0.3
0.8
0.0
-0.5
1.2
-0.8
-2.5
-3.5
-3.7
-3.3
-2.2
Venezuela
-12.8
-3.4
7.5
8.4
5.9
-3.5
-1.2
3.6
2.2
3.4
Middle East and Central Asia
-3.9
-4.0
-1.0
2.9
0.4
-3.4
3.3
8.6
4.1
3.6
0.4
Afghanistan1
3.7
9.0
7.6
12.2
11.7
11.2
Algeria
-16.4
-16.5
-13.3
-9.7
-9.9
-12.8
-2.8
9.8
2.9
1.0
-5.2
Armenia
-2.7
-1.0
-1.3
-7.2
-7.1
-4.0
-3.5
0.8
-1.4
-2.3
-5.0
Azerbaijan
-0.4
-3.6
4.1
12.8
9.1
-0.5
15.1
29.8
16.3
15.7
7.0
Bahrain
-2.4
-4.6
-4.1
-6.4
-2.1
-9.4
6.6
15.4
6.6
7.0
2.4
Djibouti
29.5
-1.0
-4.8
14.7
18.3
11.5
2.6
-4.8
-3.2
-1.4
2.3
Egypt
-3.5
-5.6
-5.8
-2.3
-3.4
-2.9
-4.4
-3.5
-1.7
-2.4
-2.7
Georgia
-11.8
-12.5
-8.1
-6.8
-5.9
-12.5
-10.4
-4.0
-6.1
-5.8
-5.5
Iran
0.3
2.9
3.1
7.9
-0.7
-0.4
3.9
4.2
3.4
3.7
2.7
Iraq
-7.0
-7.9
-5.3
3.9
-0.7
-15.0
6.9
17.3
-1.9
-4.3
-7.7
Jordan
-9.0
-9.7
-10.6
-6.8
-1.7
-5.7
-8.2
-8.8
-7.6
-5.4
-3.6
Kazakhstan
-5.4
-5.1
-2.1
-1.0
-3.9
-6.4
-1.3
3.5
-1.5
-0.7
-2.9
Kuwait
3.5
-4.6
8.0
14.4
13.1
4.6
27.2
36.0
30.3
27.7
16.0
Kyrgyz Republic
-15.9
-11.6
-6.2
-12.1
-11.5
4.5
-8.0
-46.5
-20.0
-6.1
-4.2
Lebanon1
-19.9
-23.5
-26.4
-28.6
-27.9
-15.7
-17.3
-28.8
Libya
-18.9
-9.4
6.6
14.7
6.7
-8.5
-5.4
32.9
21.3
26.5
14.9
Mauritania
-15.5
-11.0
-10.0
-13.1
-10.3
-6.7
-7.8
-15.3
-9.9
-11.1
-6.7
Morocco
-2.0
-3.8
-3.2
-4.9
-3.4
-1.2
-2.3
-3.5
-3.1
-3.2
-2.8
Oman
-13.9
-16.7
-13.4
-4.6
-4.6
-16.2
-5.4
6.4
5.1
5.4
1.6
Pakistan
-0.9
-1.6
-3.6
-5.4
-4.2
-1.5
-0.8
-4.7
-0.7
-1.8
-1.7
Qatar
8.5
-5.5
4.0
9.1
2.4
-2.1
14.6
26.7
17.6
15.4
9.3
Saudi Arabia
-8.5
-3.6
1.5
8.5
4.6
-3.1
5.1
13.6
5.9
5.4
0.5
Somalia
-2.2
-5.6
1.6
-0.1
-9.0
-4.5
-6.9
-8.2
-9.6
-10.1
-11.1
Sudan1
-8.5
-6.5
-9.4
-14.0
-14.2
-16.9
-7.5
-11.2
-1.0
-7.4
-7.7
Syria2
Tajikistan
-6.1
-4.2
2.1
-4.9
-2.2
4.1
8.2
15.6
-3.7
-2.4
-3.4
Tunisia
-9.1
-8.8
-9.7
-10.4
-7.8
-5.9
-6.0
-8.6
-5.8
-5.4
-4.6
Turkmenistan
-17.3
-23.1
-11.1
4.9
2.8
2.6
6.5
7.1
3.4
1.8
-2.5
United Arab Emirates
4.7
3.6
7.0
9.7
8.9
6.0
11.5
11.7
8.2
7.7
6.5
Uzbekistan
1.0
0.2
2.4
-6.8
-5.6
-5.0
-7.0
-0.8
-4.3
-4.6
-5.0
West Bank and Gaza1
-13.9
-13.9
-13.2
-13.2
-10.4
-12.3
-9.8
Yemen
-3.1
-5.8
-2.3
-5.4
-6.1
-17.0
-15.4
-17.8
-19.4
-13.9
-2.0
140
International Monetary Fund | October 2023
STATISTICAL APPENDIX
Table A12. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Current Account Balance (continued)
(Percent of GDP)
Projections
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2028
Sub-Saharan Africa
-5.7
-3.6
-2.1
-2.2
-3.2
-2.7
-1.0
-1.9
-2.7
-2.8
-2.3
Angola
-8.8
-3.1
-0.5
7.3
6.1
1.5
11.2
9.6
3.1
3.7
1.8
Benin
-6.0
-3.0
-4.2
-4.6
-4.0
-1.7
-4.2
-5.6
-6.0
-5.7
-4.2
Botswana
2.2
8.0
5.6
0.4
-6.9
-10.3
-1.3
3.0
0.8
1.5
0.6
Burkina Faso
-7.6
-6.1
-5.0
-4.2
-3.2
4.1
0.4
-6.2
-5.1
-5.2
-3.7
Burundi
-11.5
-11.1
-11.7
-11.4
-11.6
-10.3
-12.4
-15.6
-18.7
-20.7
-12.5
Cabo Verde
-2.9
-3.4
-7.0
-4.8
0.2
-15.0
-11.8
-3.6
-5.8
-5.0
-4.0
Cameroon
-3.6
-3.1
-2.6
-3.5
-4.3
-3.7
-4.0
-1.8
-2.6
-2.4
-3.0
Central African Republic
-9.1
-5.4
-7.8
-8.0
-4.9
-8.2
-11.1
-12.7
-8.8
-7.8
-4.5
Chad
-13.8
-10.4
-7.1
-1.1
-4.2
-7.4
-3.4
6.2
0.2
-3.3
-6.2
Comoros
-0.3
-4.4
-2.2
-3.0
-3.5
-1.9
-0.5
-2.4
-5.6
-5.8
-4.6
Democratic Republic of the Congo
-3.7
-3.9
-3.1
-3.5
-3.2
-2.2
-1.0
-5.2
-6.0
-5.3
-3.0
Republic of Congo
-39.0
-45.3
-5.5
8.3
15.7
12.3
14.2
19.4
4.0
2.1
-2.4
Côte d’Ivoire
-0.4
-0.9
-2.0
-3.9
-2.3
-3.1
-4.0
-6.5
-4.7
-3.8
-2.6
Equatorial Guinea
-17.7
-26.0
-7.8
-2.7
-7.5
-0.8
5.4
9.6
-2.6
-3.0
-7.0
Eritrea1
22.4
13.4
24.8
15.5
13.0
Eswatini
13.0
7.9
6.2
1.3
3.9
7.1
2.7
-0.7
6.3
3.2
0.3
Ethiopia
-11.5
-10.9
-8.5
-6.5
-5.3
-4.6
-3.2
-4.3
-2.4
-2.0
-1.9
Gabon
-5.6
-11.1
-8.7
-4.8
-5.0
-6.9
-4.5
1.6
-0.8
-2.1
-6.1
The Gambia
-9.9
-9.2
-7.4
-9.5
-6.2
-3.0
-0.1
-5.9
-5.0
-5.2
-3.8
Ghana
-5.7
-5.1
-3.3
-3.0
-2.2
-2.5
-2.7
-2.1
-2.5
-2.8
-3.1
Guinea
-12.5
-30.7
-6.7
-18.5
-15.5
-16.2
-2.1
-8.2
-8.9
-8.8
-6.6
Guinea-Bissau
1.8
1.4
0.3
-3.5
-8.5
-2.6
-0.8
-9.6
-7.1
-4.5
-4.0
Kenya
-6.3
-5.4
-7.0
-5.4
-5.2
-4.7
-5.2
-5.1
-4.9
-4.9
-5.1
Lesotho
-4.2
-7.8
-4.0
-3.3
-1.5
-1.0
-4.4
-7.9
-3.1
-4.7
-4.3
Liberia
-28.5
-23.0
-22.3
-21.3
-19.6
-16.4
-17.9
-19.6
-22.9
-23.1
-20.4
Madagascar
-1.6
0.5
-0.4
0.7
-2.3
-5.4
-4.9
-5.4
-3.9
-4.8
-4.9
Malawi
-12.2
-13.1
-15.5
-12.0
-12.6
-13.8
-13.3
-3.4
-5.9
-8.5
-6.8
Mali
-5.3
-7.2
-7.3
-4.9
-7.5
-2.2
-7.5
-6.9
-6.5
-5.7
-3.7
Mauritius
-3.5
-3.9
-4.5
-3.8
-5.0
-8.8
-13.0
-11.5
-6.2
-4.1
-5.6
Mozambique
-37.4
-32.2
-19.6
-32.2
-19.1
-27.6
-22.4
-32.9
-16.0
-39.3
-20.5
Namibia
-13.6
-16.5
-4.4
-3.6
-1.8
2.6
-9.9
-12.7
-7.1
-6.4
-4.5
Niger
-15.3
-11.4
-11.4
-12.7
-12.2
-13.2
-14.1
-15.6
-12.5
-3.9
-5.8
Nigeria
-3.1
1.3
3.6
1.7
-3.1
-3.7
-0.7
0.2
0.7
0.6
0.1
Rwanda
-12.7
-15.3
-9.5
-10.1
-11.9
-12.1
-11.2
-9.8
-12.7
-11.3
-7.5
São Tomé and Príncipe
-14.5
-7.2
-15.3
-13.2
-12.7
-11.2
-12.1
-13.3
-14.9
-10.0
-7.0
Senegal
-5.7
-4.2
-7.3
-8.8
-7.9
-10.1
-11.2
-19.9
-14.6
-7.9
-4.4
Seychelles
-17.9
-18.7
-17.9
-2.4
-2.8
-12.3
-10.1
-7.1
-6.9
-8.5
-9.1
Sierra Leone
-23.6
-7.6
-18.3
-17.1
-19.4
-7.9
-8.6
-8.8
-6.8
-7.0
-7.7
South Africa
-4.3
-2.7
-2.4
-2.9
-2.6
1.9
3.7
-0.5
-2.5
-2.8
-2.1
South Sudan
1.7
19.6
9.6
11.0
2.1
-19.2
-9.5
9.8
2.3
2.0
0.4
Tanzania
-7.7
-4.2
-2.6
-3.0
-2.6
-1.9
-3.4
-5.4
-5.1
-4.2
-2.7
Togo
-7.5
-7.2
-1.5
-2.6
-0.8
-0.3
-0.9
-3.2
-3.1
-2.7
-2.2
Uganda
-5.5
-2.6
-4.8
-6.1
-6.6
-9.4
-8.3
-8.2
-7.1
-8.2
-6.4
Zambia
-2.7
-3.3
-1.7
-1.3
0.4
10.6
9.7
3.6
3.8
7.1
8.5
Zimbabwe1
-8.0
-3.4
-1.3
-3.7
3.5
2.5
1.0
1.0
0.9
-0.7
-1.1
1See the country-specific notes for Afghanistan, Eritrea, Lebanon, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Türkiye, Ukraine, West Bank and Gaza, and Zimbabwe in the “Country Notes” section of the Statistical
Appendix.
2Data for Syria are excluded for 2011 onward owing to the uncertain political situation.
International Monetary Fund | October 2023
141
WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: NAVIGATING GLOBAL DIVERGENCES
Table A13. Summary of Financial Account Balances
(Billions of US dollars)
Projections
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Advanced Economies
Financial Account Balance
273.0
414.4
396.6
445.4
136.6
-35.8
535.1
6.2
71.7
246.8
Direct Investment, Net
-5.9
-252.6
339.0
-50.6
26.3
7.1
711.9
614.4
116.1
163.8
Portfolio Investment, Net
198.3
523.3
11.4
507.7
20.1
189.2
302.3
-833.9
-439.8
-133.2
Financial Derivatives, Net
-90.3
18.6
26.9
48.5
15.4
77.3
37.8
12.4
106.3
101.3
Other Investment, Net
-56.2
-53.3
-228.3
-189.7
6.8
-669.2
-1,153.8
426.8
196.5
-8.0
Change in Reserves
207.6
190.0
247.7
129.5
68.0
358.9
636.1
-213.7
91.9
122.1
United States
Financial Account Balance
-386.4
-362.4
-373.2
-302.9
-558.4
-668.9
-788.8
-804.8
-905.1
-786.6
Direct Investment, Net
-209.4
-174.6
28.6
-345.4
-201.1
148.3
-99.0
38.2
-87.3
-95.5
Portfolio Investment, Net
-106.8
-193.8
-250.1
78.8
-244.9
-540.2
97.3
-437.7
-428.7
-186.0
Financial Derivatives, Net
-27.0
7.8
24.0
-20.4
-41.7
-5.1
-39.0
-80.7
-22.8
-29.1
Other Investment, Net
-37.0
-4.0
-174.1
-20.8
-75.4
-280.9
-862.0
-330.4
-367.1
-476.0
Change in Reserves
-6.3
2.1
-1.7
5.0
4.7
9.0
114.0
5.8
0.8
0.0
Euro Area
Financial Account Balance
331.4
310.6
387.9
344.3
234.9
209.1
446.9
90.2
Direct Investment, Net
240.6
141.5
69.0
137.1
77.1
-247.8
397.3
244.7
Portfolio Investment, Net
131.4
540.8
404.3
274.8
-138.7
585.6
380.2
-305.9
Financial Derivatives, Net
126.4
11.3
12.4
46.6
6.5
19.1
68.3
65.9
Other Investment, Net
-178.5
-400.3
-96.7
-144.0
283.3
-162.9
-553.2
66.6
Change in Reserves
11.6
17.3
-1.2
29.8
6.7
15.0
154.3
18.9
Germany
Financial Account Balance
263.8
286.5
303.0
287.0
224.3
218.5
294.2
240.0
265.6
309.1
Direct Investment, Net
68.4
48.1
37.7
25.1
98.4
-5.6
118.8
132.0
86.6
124.7
Portfolio Investment, Net
213.8
217.9
220.7
177.4
82.9
18.7
240.9
25.6
97.2
136.1
Financial Derivatives, Net
33.7
31.7
12.6
26.8
23.0
107.9
71.2
45.0
57.4
62.5
Other Investment, Net
-49.7
-13.0
33.5
57.2
20.6
97.5
-174.5
32.7
24.5
-14.2
Change in Reserves
-2.5
1.9
-1.4
0.5
-0.6
-0.1
37.7
4.7
0.0
0.0
France
Financial Account Balance
-0.8
-18.6
-36.1
-28.4
-0.1
-56.5
5.5
-60.8
-25.8
-29.5
Direct Investment, Net
7.9
41.8
11.1
60.2
30.7
10.2
13.8
11.6
23.8
30.7
Portfolio Investment, Net
43.2
0.2
30.3
19.3
-70.4
-29.7
14.9
-125.8
-48.5
-27.8
Financial Derivatives, Net
14.5
-17.6
-1.4
-30.5
4.1
-27.2
21.0
-43.1
-27.0
-17.6
Other Investment, Net
-74.2
-45.4
-72.7
-89.7
32.3
-14.4
-71.2
94.4
22.1
-19.4
Change in Reserves
8.0
2.5
-3.4
12.3
3.2
4.6
27.0
2.0
3.7
4.6
Italy
Financial Account Balance
42.9
38.1
62.4
40.6
59.2
82.4
65.5
-18.5
34.2
38.8
Direct Investment, Net
2.0
-12.3
0.5
-6.1
1.6
21.5
36.9
-21.8
-10.7
-11.1
Portfolio Investment, Net
111.7
157.8
103.1
157.1
-56.2
132.3
145.7
176.2
-32.5
-33.7
Financial Derivatives, Net
1.3
-3.6
-8.4
-3.3
3.0
-2.8
0.0
12.0
6.4
3.5
Other Investment, Net
-72.7
-102.5
-35.9
-110.2
107.1
-73.1
-141.7
-187.0
70.9
80.1
Change in Reserves
0.6
-1.3
3.0
3.1
3.6
4.6
24.5
2.1
0.0
0.0
Spain
Financial Account Balance
26.6
37.2
37.6
35.3
28.8
-0.5
16.4
23.2
51.9
52.2
Direct Investment, Net
33.4
12.4
14.1
-19.9
8.9
18.1
-20.1
-0.7
-1.8
-2.0
Portfolio Investment, Net
6.9
62.8
34.7
25.2
-55.8
78.9
31.6
39.7
34.1
39.2
Financial Derivatives, Net
4.2
2.9
8.7
-1.2
-8.0
-8.0
2.2
2.2
0.0
0.0
Other Investment, Net
-23.3
-50.1
-24.0
28.7
82.9
-89.1
-9.4
-22.6
19.5
15.0
Change in Reserves
5.5
9.1
4.1
2.6
0.8
-0.4
12.2
4.7
0.0
0.0
142
International Monetary Fund | October 2023
STATISTICAL APPENDIX
Table A13. Summary of Financial Account Balances (continued)
(Billions of US dollars)
Projections
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Japan
Financial Account Balance
180.9
266.5
168.3
183.9
228.3
132.2
154.0
53.7
138.6
154.4
Direct Investment, Net
133.3
137.5
155.0
134.6
218.9
87.5
175.4
127.7
128.7
133.8
Portfolio Investment, Net
131.5
276.3
-50.6
92.2
87.4
38.5
-198.3
-143.0
-30.9
-36.1
Financial Derivatives, Net
17.7
-16.1
30.4
0.9
3.2
7.8
19.9
38.4
38.4
38.4
Other Investment, Net
-106.7
-125.6
10.0
-67.9
-106.7
-12.4
94.1
78.0
-9.1
6.8
Change in Reserves
5.1
-5.7
23.6
24.0
25.5
10.9
62.8
-47.4
11.5
11.5
United Kingdom
Financial Account Balance
-160.4
-167.0
-95.8
-123.2
-101.9
-107.4
-24.5
-80.0
-125.4
-134.8
Direct Investment, Net
-106.0
-297.4
46.1
-4.9
-42.2
-136.5
156.1
115.9
6.7
7.2
Portfolio Investment, Net
-192.5
-159.0
-88.3
-352.2
29.8
32.4
-264.3
-108.6
-180.8
-194.6
Financial Derivatives, Net
-133.2
15.6
19.3
10.3
2.5
33.1
-37.4
-58.3
5.8
6.2
Other Investment, Net
239.2
265.0
-81.7
198.7
-90.8
-33.2
96.8
-27.7
42.9
46.4
Change in Reserves
32.2
8.8
8.8
24.8
-1.1
-3.3
24.4
-1.3
0.0
0.0
Canada
Financial Account Balance
-51.8
-45.4
-44.2
-35.8
-37.9
-36.5
-1.8
-5.8
-21.0
-21.4
Direct Investment, Net
23.6
33.5
53.4
20.4
26.9
15.6
31.3
29.0
4.3
46.5
Portfolio Investment, Net
-36.2
-103.6
-74.9
3.4
-1.6
-67.7
-41.9
-115.9
14.8
16.5
Financial Derivatives, Net
Other Investment, Net
-47.8
19.1
-23.5
-58.2
-63.3
14.3
-11.4
70.5
-40.0
-84.4
Change in Reserves
8.6
5.6
0.8
-1.5
0.1
1.3
20.2
10.6
0.0
0.0
Other Advanced Economies1
Financial Account Balance
287.9
323.5
308.1
359.6
331.4
386.3
619.9
478.2
553.3
554.6
Direct Investment, Net
-103.1
-76.1
-157.4
43.0
-29.0
68.8
-47.3
-23.6
-132.0
-172.7
Portfolio Investment, Net
321.8
244.9
150.8
367.8
307.8
263.4
485.5
331.3
287.8
289.4
Financial Derivatives, Net
-12.0
3.3
-5.6
31.8
20.0
-10.5
-22.3
29.5
23.7
11.6
Other Investment, Net
-94.7
1.1
107.4
-132.4
2.3
-259.4
-54.1
340.6
305.1
326.8
Change in Reserves
156.2
162.0
213.1
49.5
30.3
323.3
257.1
-199.9
68.0
98.8
Emerging Market and Developing
Economies
Financial Account Balance
-314.1
-436.6
-292.9
-270.1
-163.9
19.2
243.0
489.0
180.4
180.1
Direct Investment, Net
-345.5
-258.7
-309.9
-375.0
-360.8
-328.6
-482.1
-308.8
-255.0
-324.4
Portfolio Investment, Net
125.4
-58.8
-209.7
-103.5
-70.5
-3.7
123.8
484.9
143.8
-1.3
Financial Derivatives, Net
Other Investment, Net
468.1
373.1
55.3
96.7
106.0
259.0
67.9
189.4
170.2
234.3
Change in Reserves
-576.9
-487.0
183.2
118.1
161.9
68.9
538.9
131.7
126.7
280.2
International Monetary Fund | October 2023
143
WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: NAVIGATING GLOBAL DIVERGENCES
Table A13. Summary of Financial Account Balances (continued)
(Billions of US dollars)
Projections
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Regional Groups
Emerging and Developing Asia
Financial Account Balance
62.8
-35.9
-67.5
-269.6
-61.7
147.5
152.2
161.7
177.9
163.0
Direct Investment, Net
-139.5
-25.9
-108.3
-170.5
-144.7
-164.2
-258.5
-109.5
-51.3
-87.2
Portfolio Investment, Net
81.6
31.1
-70.1
-100.4
-72.9
-107.4
-20.7
299.5
52.9
-75.0
Financial Derivatives, Net
0.7
-4.6
2.3
4.7
-2.5
15.8
18.8
16.0
16.4
16.9
Other Investment, Net
457.9
354.5
-83.2
-20.6
67.2
239.2
146.6
-78.0
80.0
138.5
Change in Reserves
-333.0
-384.6
199.2
22.1
97.0
167.4
277.3
53.3
91.7
182.7
Emerging and Developing Europe
Financial Account Balance
68.1
10.9
-25.4
106.2
60.0
8.4
84.6
160.9
-18.7
3.9
Direct Investment, Net
-22.3
-42.8
-27.8
-25.8
-50.3
-38.4
-41.2
-37.2
-29.8
-47.0
Portfolio Investment, Net
54.9
-10.8
-34.9
9.8
-2.8
21.1
40.0
28.6
14.9
17.2
Financial Derivatives, Net
5.1
0.5
-2.2
-3.0
1.4
0.3
-5.9
-5.2
-5.0
-5.0
Other Investment, Net
39.1
28.3
26.0
79.6
19.6
29.5
-36.2
143.9
11.6
22.4
Change in Reserves
-8.7
35.7
13.5
45.6
92.1
-4.1
128.0
31.4
-10.2
16.8
Latin America and the Caribbean
Financial Account Balance
-197.6
-112.9
-111.6
-163.1
-121.0
-8.7
-103.1
-153.7
-113.5
-103.1
Direct Investment, Net
-133.3
-124.8
-121.2
-148.2
-115.2
-94.6
-102.3
-136.6
-130.5
-125.0
Portfolio Investment, Net
-50.8
-50.5
-39.2
-14.6
1.3
0.9
-6.6
6.6
0.8
-7.3
Financial Derivatives, Net
1.4
-2.9
3.9
4.0
4.9
5.7
2.0
3.2
-4.5
-5.0
Other Investment, Net
13.8
44.2
27.6
-18.1
20.8
63.2
-45.9
-7.8
-16.3
-0.2
Change in Reserves
-28.8
21.0
17.1
13.7
-32.6
16.2
49.7
-19.0
37.1
34.4
Middle East and Central Asia
Financial Account Balance
-179.0
-232.7
-43.3
96.7
11.8
-105.8
123.8
365.6
179.2
164.7
Direct Investment, Net
-12.4
-31.0
-15.3
-11.0
-21.1
-21.9
-17.6
2.1
-8.8
-22.3
Portfolio Investment, Net
61.7
-11.9
-41.5
6.0
22.6
79.4
69.5
144.5
66.0
56.2
Financial Derivatives, Net
Other Investment, Net
-52.0
-44.1
84.7
76.6
9.4
-68.0
18.3
151.9
107.4
90.2
Change in Reserves
-189.9
-154.4
-62.5
31.7
-0.8
-101.7
61.9
71.5
16.4
43.9
Sub-Saharan Africa
Financial Account Balance
-68.4
-65.9
-45.1
-40.4
-53.0
-22.1
-14.5
-45.5
-44.5
-48.4
Direct Investment, Net
-37.9
-34.2
-37.3
-19.4
-29.5
-9.5
-62.5
-27.5
-34.6
-42.9
Portfolio Investment, Net
-22.0
-16.8
-24.0
-4.4
-18.6
2.4
41.6
5.8
9.0
7.6
Financial Derivatives, Net
-0.4
1.0
0.2
-0.5
0.3
0.7
-0.2
2.0
1.8
1.9
Other Investment, Net
9.2
-9.7
0.1
-20.8
-11.0
-5.1
-14.9
-20.7
-12.5
-16.6
Change in Reserves
-16.4
-4.8
16.0
4.9
6.1
-8.9
22.0
-5.5
-8.4
2.3
144
International Monetary Fund | October 2023
STATISTICAL APPENDIX
Table A13. Summary of Financial Account Balances (continued)
(Billions of US dollars)
Projections
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Analytical Groups
By Source of Export Earnings
Fuel
Financial Account Balance
-174.3
-195.3
8.6
167.7
51.0
-71.9
172.9
444.5
226.7
218.4
Direct Investment, Net
-11.5
-20.7
10.9
10.8
-7.9
-8.1
-5.4
28.7
12.4
1.0
Portfolio Investment, Net
66.3
-8.4
-36.2
7.1
20.1
80.8
86.5
115.8
69.2
61.9
Financial Derivatives, Net
Other Investment, Net
-17.2
-4.7
111.8
111.7
34.5
-48.3
39.4
213.1
129.0
136.3
Change in Reserves
-225.9
-170.3
-69.7
44.0
2.7
-102.9
59.7
91.5
18.3
23.0
Nonfuel
Financial Account Balance
-139.8
-241.3
-301.5
-437.8
-214.9
91.1
70.1
44.5
-46.4
-38.3
Direct Investment, Net
-333.9
-238.1
-320.8
-385.8
-352.9
-320.6
-476.7
-337.5
-267.4
-325.4
Portfolio Investment, Net
59.1
-50.4
-173.5
-110.6
-90.7
-84.4
37.3
369.1
74.6
-63.2
Financial Derivatives, Net
6.9
-6.0
4.3
5.2
4.0
22.5
14.7
15.9
8.6
8.8
Other Investment, Net
485.3
377.8
-56.5
-15.1
71.5
307.3
28.4
-23.8
41.2
98.0
Change in Reserves
-350.9
-316.7
252.9
74.1
159.2
171.8
479.3
40.2
108.4
257.2
By External Financing Source
Net Debtor Economies
Financial Account Balance
-301.2
-249.2
-308.0
-353.0
-273.5
-78.1
-319.5
-467.4
-364.8
-360.2
Direct Investment, Net
-284.7
-279.0
-264.6
-307.8
-289.7
-227.5
-295.8
-312.0
-302.5
-350.0
Portfolio Investment, Net
-33.7
-62.0
-122.5
-31.8
-27.4
-33.4
-8.6
48.6
-11.7
-25.1
Financial Derivatives, Net
6.9
-3.2
-2.2
Other Investment, Net
31.5
24.0
-32.6
-18.7
-66.8
11.6
-224.0
-117.1
-107.6
-100.5
Change in Reserves
-5.9
88.4
115.6
10.3
117.8
167.7
217.0
-74.3
72.0
131.3
Net Debtor Economies by
Debt-Servicing Experience
Economies with Arrears
and/or Rescheduling
during 2018-22
Financial Account Balance
-76.0
-80.0
-57.5
-48.2
-44.8
-24.6
-38.4
-31.9
-41.0
-47.0
Direct Investment, Net
-43.1
-35.0
-27.0
-30.1
-32.3
-22.6
-33.2
-23.0
-27.8
-34.5
Portfolio Investment, Net
-1.1
-12.1
-36.7
-19.8
-17.9
5.8
-22.3
27.4
5.0
-1.1
Financial Derivatives, Net
Other Investment, Net
-25.6
-34.2
-9.1
-2.3
4.7
11.2
9.8
-14.5
-18.7
-37.9
Change in Reserves
-5.5
1.9
15.9
4.6
0.6
-18.2
8.7
-22.8
-0.4
26.0
Memorandum
World
Financial Account Balance
-41.0
-22.2
103.7
175.3
-27.3
-16.6
778.1
495.2
252.1
426.9
Note: The estimates in this table are based on individual countries’ national accounts and balance of payments statistics. Country group composites are calculated as the sum of the US dollar
values for the relevant individual countries. Some group aggregates for the financial derivatives are not shown because of incomplete data. Projections for the euro area are not available
because of data constraints.
1Excludes the Group of Seven (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States) and euro area countries.
International Monetary Fund | October 2023
145
WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: NAVIGATING GLOBAL DIVERGENCES
Table A14. Summary of Net Lending and Borrowing
(Percent of GDP)
Projections
Averages
Average
2005-14
2009-16
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025-28
Advanced Economies
Net Lending and Borrowing
-0.4
0.3
0.9
0.7
0.7
0.3
1.0
-0.2
0.3
0.4
0.4
Current Account Balance
-0.4
0.3
1.0
0.7
0.7
0.3
0.9
-0.4
0.2
0.3
0.4
Savings
21.8
21.7
23.3
23.4
23.6
23.1
23.8
23.1
22.0
22.0
22.4
Investment
22.1
21.3
22.1
22.4
22.6
22.4
22.7
23.2
22.4
22.2
22.5
Capital Account Balance
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
United States
Net Lending and Borrowing
-3.7
-2.5
-1.8
-2.2
-2.1
-2.9
-3.6
-3.8
-3.0
-2.8
-2.5
Current Account Balance
-3.7
-2.4
-1.9
-2.1
-2.1
-2.8
-3.6
-3.8
-3.0
-2.8
-2.5
Savings
17.2
17.7
19.5
19.6
19.7
19.3
18.0
18.3
16.3
16.4
17.1
Investment
20.7
19.8
20.8
21.2
21.3
21.1
21.1
21.6
20.6
20.4
20.6
Capital Account Balance
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Euro Area
Net Lending and Borrowing
0.4
1.4
2.9
2.5
2.2
1.8
3.2
0.3
Current Account Balance
0.3
1.3
3.1
2.8
2.4
1.8
2.8
-0.7
1.2
1.4
1.7
Savings
22.7
22.6
24.8
25.3
25.9
25.0
27.1
25.4
25.7
25.9
26.3
Investment
21.6
20.4
21.3
21.9
22.8
22.3
23.0
24.2
23.3
23.3
23.5
Capital Account Balance
0.1
0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.2
0.0
0.4
1.1
Germany
Net Lending and Borrowing
6.2
7.0
7.8
8.0
8.1
6.8
7.7
3.7
6.0
6.6
6.2
Current Account Balance
6.2
7.0
7.8
8.0
8.2
7.1
7.7
4.2
6.0
6.6
6.2
Savings
26.5
27.0
28.8
29.9
30.0
29.0
30.9
29.2
29.8
29.7
30.0
Investment
20.3
20.0
21.0
21.9
21.9
22.0
23.2
25.0
23.8
23.2
23.8
Capital Account Balance
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.3
0.0
-0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
France
Net Lending and Borrowing
-0.5
-0.7
-0.8
-0.7
0.6
-1.5
0.7
-1.6
-0.8
-0.9
-0.3
Current Account Balance
-0.5
-0.7
-0.8
-0.8
0.5
-1.6
0.4
-2.0
-1.2
-1.3
-0.7
Savings
22.3
21.8
22.7
23.0
24.9
22.5
25.2
24.2
24.4
24.1
23.9
Investment
22.8
22.4
23.4
23.9
24.4
24.1
24.9
26.3
25.6
25.4
24.6
Capital Account Balance
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
Italy1
Net Lending and Borrowing
-1.1
-0.1
2.7
2.6
3.2
3.9
3.1
-0.7
1.6
1.7
2.0
Current Account Balance
-1.2
-0.1
2.7
2.6
3.3
3.9
3.1
-1.2
0.7
0.9
1.7
Savings
18.8
18.2
20.7
21.1
21.6
21.6
23.7
20.5
22.1
23.0
24.3
Investment
19.9
18.4
18.1
18.5
18.2
17.7
20.7
21.8
21.4
22.1
22.7
Capital Account Balance
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.9
0.8
0.3
Spain
Net Lending and Borrowing
-3.7
0.3
3.0
2.4
2.4
1.1
1.6
1.5
3.3
3.1
2.4
Current Account Balance
-4.1
-0.2
2.8
1.9
2.1
0.6
0.8
0.6
2.1
2.0
1.9
Savings
19.7
19.5
22.2
22.3
22.9
21.1
22.4
22.1
22.8
22.9
23.2
Investment
23.9
19.7
19.4
20.5
20.8
20.5
21.6
21.5
20.7
20.9
21.3
Capital Account Balance
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.5
0.3
0.5
0.9
0.9
1.2
1.1
0.5
Japan
Net Lending and Borrowing
2.5
2.2
4.1
3.5
3.4
2.9
3.9
2.1
3.3
3.6
3.4
Current Account Balance
2.6
2.3
4.1
3.5
3.4
3.0
3.9
2.1
3.3
3.7
3.4
Savings
27.2
26.3
29.3
29.2
29.2
28.3
29.6
28.9
29.7
29.7
29.3
Investment
24.6
24.0
25.2
25.6
25.8
25.3
25.7
26.7
26.4
26.0
25.9
Capital Account Balance
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
United Kingdom1
Net Lending and Borrowing
-3.5
-4.0
-3.7
-4.2
-2.9
-3.3
-1.6
-3.9
-3.8
-3.8
-3.7
Current Account Balance
-3.4
-4.0
-3.6
-4.1
-2.8
-3.2
-1.5
-3.8
-3.7
-3.7
-3.6
Savings
13.4
12.5
14.7
13.9
15.3
14.0
16.4
15.8
14.2
13.7
14.1
Investment
16.8
16.5
18.3
18.0
18.1
17.2
17.9
19.6
17.9
17.3
17.7
Capital Account Balance
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
146
International Monetary Fund | October 2023
STATISTICAL APPENDIX
Table A14. Summary of Net Lending and Borrowing (continued)
(Percent of GDP)
Projections
Averages
Average
2005-14
2009-16
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025-28
Canada
Net Lending and Borrowing
-1.4
-3.1
-2.8
-2.4
-2.0
-2.2
-0.3
-0.3
-1.0
-1.0
-1.6
Current Account Balance
-1.4
-3.1
-2.8
-2.4
-2.0
-2.2
-0.3
-0.3
-1.0
-1.0
-1.6
Savings
22.5
20.8
20.7
21.0
21.1
20.1
23.5
24.2
22.1
21.9
21.4
Investment
23.8
23.9
23.6
23.4
23.0
22.3
23.8
24.5
23.1
22.9
23.0
Capital Account Balance
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Other Advanced Economies2
Net Lending and Borrowing
4.0
4.5
4.7
4.7
4.6
5.3
7.0
7.0
6.2
6.1
5.6
Current Account Balance
4.1
4.6
4.7
4.4
4.7
5.2
7.0
7.0
6.2
6.1
5.5
Savings
30.6
30.5
30.9
30.5
30.3
31.5
33.4
33.4
32.2
32.2
32.0
Investment
26.3
25.7
25.9
25.9
25.5
25.9
26.1
26.0
25.9
26.0
26.4
Capital Account Balance
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Emerging Market and Developing
Economies
Net Lending and Borrowing
2.2
0.8
-0.1
-0.2
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.5
0.4
-0.1
Current Account Balance
2.2
0.7
-0.1
-0.2
0.0
0.4
0.9
1.5
0.4
0.4
-0.1
Savings
32.3
32.3
31.7
32.4
32.1
32.9
34.3
34.4
32.4
32.1
31.7
Investment
30.4
31.7
31.8
32.7
32.3
32.5
33.4
33.0
32.0
31.8
31.8
Capital Account Balance
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
Regional Groups
Emerging and Developing Asia
Net Lending and Borrowing
3.2
1.7
0.9
-0.3
0.5
1.5
1.2
1.2
0.8
0.6
0.2
Current Account Balance
3.1
1.6
0.9
-0.3
0.5
1.5
1.2
1.2
0.7
0.6
0.2
Savings
42.4
42.4
40.1
40.0
39.5
40.2
40.9
40.8
39.4
39.0
38.3
Investment
39.5
40.8
39.2
40.2
39.1
38.7
39.7
39.6
38.7
38.3
38.1
Capital Account Balance
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Emerging and Developing Europe
Net Lending and Borrowing
-0.5
-0.2
-0.4
2.1
1.7
0.5
1.9
2.8
-0.1
0.1
-0.3
Current Account Balance
-0.6
-0.5
-0.7
1.6
1.3
0.1
1.5
2.6
-0.4
-0.3
-0.6
Savings
23.4
23.2
24.0
25.7
24.3
24.0
26.3
28.1
22.6
21.5
19.8
Investment
23.8
23.6
24.7
23.7
23.0
23.9
24.7
25.4
23.1
21.7
20.4
Capital Account Balance
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
Latin America and the Caribbean
Net Lending and Borrowing
-1.1
-2.4
-1.8
-2.7
-2.1
-0.2
-2.0
-2.4
-1.7
-1.5
-1.3
Current Account Balance
-1.2
-2.5
-1.8
-2.7
-2.1
-0.4
-2.0
-2.4
-1.8
-1.5
-1.4
Savings
20.6
19.0
17.1
16.5
16.8
17.8
18.4
18.0
18.4
18.7
19.2
Investment
21.8
21.5
18.9
19.2
19.0
18.2
20.5
20.5
20.2
20.3
20.5
Capital Account Balance
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Middle East and Central Asia
Net Lending and Borrowing
8.8
4.5
-1.3
2.4
0.3
-3.4
3.1
8.3
4.0
3.4
1.4
Current Account Balance
9.0
4.4
-1.0
2.9
0.4
-3.4
3.3
8.6
4.1
3.6
1.5
Savings
36.3
32.0
25.9
28.4
26.9
22.6
28.3
33.1
29.8
29.7
27.9
Investment
27.4
27.3
26.7
25.8
26.6
26.0
25.1
24.8
25.3
25.7
26.1
Capital Account Balance
0.2
0.1
-0.1
-0.2
0.1
-0.1
-0.3
-0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.1
Sub-Saharan Africa
Net Lending and Borrowing
1.0
-1.9
-1.6
-1.8
-2.8
-2.3
-0.6
-1.7
-2.3
-2.4
-2.2
Current Account Balance
-0.2
-2.6
-2.1
-2.2
-3.2
-2.7
-1.0
-1.9
-2.7
-2.8
-2.5
Savings
20.7
19.1
18.6
19.4
19.8
19.9
21.4
19.7
18.9
19.3
20.8
Investment
21.0
21.5
20.5
21.3
22.9
22.6
22.3
21.5
21.5
22.0
23.2
Capital Account Balance
1.2
0.7
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.4
International Monetary Fund | October 2023
147
WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: NAVIGATING GLOBAL DIVERGENCES
Table A14. Summary of Net Lending and Borrowing (continued)
(Percent of GDP)
Projections
Averages
Average
2005-14
2009-16
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025-28
Analytical Groups
By Source of Export Earnings
Fuel
Net Lending and Borrowing
11.5
5.7
0.8
4.9
1.8
-3.2
5.0
11.3
5.6
5.0
2.7
Current Account Balance
11.7
5.7
1.2
5.5
1.9
-3.2
5.3
11.6
5.8
5.3
3.0
Savings
38.6
33.4
28.0
30.8
29.5
25.3
32.2
36.6
32.2
31.7
29.7
Investment
27.1
27.4
26.4
25.4
27.4
28.5
27.0
25.3
26.1
26.1
26.6
Capital Account Balance
0.1
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
0.0
-0.1
-0.4
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
Nonfuel
Net Lending and Borrowing
0.7
-0.1
-0.2
-0.8
-0.1
0.9
0.6
0.4
0.0
-0.1
-0.3
Current Account Balance
0.6
-0.2
-0.2
-0.8
-0.2
0.8
0.5
0.4
-0.1
-0.1
-0.4
Savings
31.3
32.1
32.1
32.6
32.4
33.6
34.4
34.1
32.4
32.1
31.9
Investment
30.8
32.3
32.4
33.5
32.7
32.8
34.0
33.8
32.6
32.3
32.3
Capital Account Balance
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
By External Financing Source
Net Debtor Economies
Net Lending and Borrowing
-1.8
-2.2
-1.7
-2.3
-1.5
-0.5
-1.9
-2.5
-1.8
-1.7
-1.7
Current Account Balance
-2.1
-2.5
-1.9
-2.5
-1.7
-0.7
-2.1
-2.7
-1.9
-1.9
-1.8
Savings
23.5
23.1
22.9
23.2
23.1
23.4
23.6
23.1
22.8
22.6
22.8
Investment
25.7
25.5
24.8
25.5
24.9
24.1
25.7
25.8
24.8
24.4
24.7
Capital Account Balance
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
Net Debtor Economies by
Debt-Servicing Experience
Economies with Arrears and/or
Rescheduling during 2018-22
Net Lending and Borrowing
-2.3
-4.0
-4.4
-3.5
-3.2
-1.9
-2.0
-1.6
-2.4
-2.9
-2.5
Current Account Balance
-3.2
-4.7
-4.9
-3.9
-3.6
-2.5
-2.4
-1.9
-2.7
-3.3
-2.8
Savings
21.3
19.5
18.6
20.0
18.9
17.1
17.7
18.4
17.1
17.9
19.4
Investment
24.7
24.2
24.1
23.8
23.2
20.1
20.5
20.5
20.0
20.9
21.9
Capital Account Balance
0.9
0.7
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.3
Memorandum
World
Net Lending and Borrowing
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.3
0.4
0.4
1.0
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.2
Current Account Balance
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.9
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
Savings
25.3
25.6
26.7
27.0
27.0
27.0
28.1
27.9
26.3
26.2
26.4
Investment
24.9
25.1
25.9
26.5
26.5
26.4
27.1
27.4
26.4
26.2
26.5
Capital Account Balance
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
Note: The estimates in this table are based on individual countries’ national accounts and balance of payments statistics. Country group composites are calculated as the sum of the US dollar
values for the relevant individual countries. This differs from the calculations in the April 2005 and earlier issues of the World Economic Outlook, in which the composites were weighted by
GDP valued at purchasing power parities as a share of total world GDP. The estimates of gross national savings and investment (or gross capital formation) are from individual countries’
national accounts statistics. The estimates of the current account balance, the capital account balance, and the financial account balance (or net lending/net borrowing) are from the balance of
payments statistics. The link between domestic transactions and transactions with the rest of the world can be expressed as accounting identities. Savings (S) minus investment (I) is equal to
the current account balance (CAB) (S − I = CAB). Also, net lending/net borrowing (NLB) is the sum of the current account balance and the capital account balance (KAB) (NLB = CAB + KAB). In
practice, these identities do not hold exactly; imbalances result from imperfections in source data and compilation as well as from asymmetries in group composition due to data availability.
1See the country-specific notes for Italy and the United Kingdom in the “Country Notes” section of the Statistical Appendix.
2Excludes the Group of Seven (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States) and euro area countries.
148
International Monetary Fund | October 2023
STATISTICAL APPENDIX
Table A15. Summary of World Medium-Term Baseline Scenario
Projections
Averages
Averages
2005-14
2015-24
2021
2022
2023
2024
2021-24
2025-28
Annual Percent Change
World Real GDP
3.9
3.0
6.3
3.5
3.0
2.9
3.9
3.2
Advanced Economies
1.5
1.7
5.6
2.6
1.5
1.4
2.8
1.8
Emerging Market and Developing Economies
6.0
3.9
6.9
4.1
4.0
4.0
4.7
4.0
Memorandum
Potential Output
Major Advanced Economies
1.4
1.2
2.0
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.6
World Trade, Volume1
4.7
2.8
10.9
5.1
0.9
3.5
5.0
3.5
Imports
Advanced Economies
3.2
2.9
10.3
6.7
0.1
3.0
4.9
3.1
Emerging Market and Developing Economies
8.0
2.4
11.8
3.2
1.7
4.4
5.2
4.4
Exports
Advanced Economies
4.0
2.6
9.8
5.3
1.8
3.1
5.0
3.1
Emerging Market and Developing Economies
6.3
3.1
12.8
4.1
-0.1
4.2
5.2
4.0
Terms of Trade
Advanced Economies
-0.3
0.3
0.8
-2.0
0.2
0.5
-0.2
0.1
Emerging Market and Developing Economies
1.2
-0.5
0.7
0.9
-1.5
0.2
0.1
-0.3
World Prices in US Dollars
Manufactures
1.9
0.7
6.6
10.1
-1.8
2.3
4.2
1.8
Oil
9.8
-1.8
65.8
39.2
-16.5
-0.7
17.6
-4.1
Nonfuel Primary Commodities
6.2
1.8
26.7
7.9
-6.3
-2.7
5.7
0.3
Consumer Prices
Advanced Economies
1.9
2.5
3.1
7.3
4.6
3.0
4.5
2.1
Emerging Market and Developing Economies
6.2
6.1
5.9
9.8
8.5
7.8
8.0
5.5
Interest Rates
Percent
World Real Long-Term Interest Rate2
1.2
-0.7
-2.5
-5.0
-1.4
0.6
-2.0
1.3
Current Account Balances
Percent of GDP
Advanced Economies
-0.4
0.5
0.9
-0.4
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.4
Emerging Market and Developing Economies
2.2
0.3
0.9
1.5
0.4
0.4
0.8
-0.1
Total External Debt
Emerging Market and Developing Economies
27.1
30.3
31.4
29.2
29.0
28.0
29.4
26.6
Debt Service
Emerging Market and Developing Economies
9.4
10.8
10.6
10.7
10.4
9.7
10.3
9.4
1Data refer to trade in goods and services.
2GDP-weighted average of 10-year (or nearest-maturity) government bond rates for Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the
United States.
International Monetary Fund | October 2023
149
WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
SELECTED TOPICS
World Economic Outlook Archives
World Economic Outlook: Hopes, Realities, Risks
April 2013
World Economic Outlook: Transitions and Tensions
October 2013
World Economic Outlook: Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven
April 2014
World Economic Outlook: Legacies, Clouds, Uncertainties
October 2014
World Economic Outlook: Uneven Growth—Short- and Long-Term Factors
April 2015
World Economic Outlook: Adjusting to Lower Commodity Prices
October 2015
World Economic Outlook: Too Slow for Too Long
April 2016
World Economic Outlook: Subdued Demand—Symptoms and Remedies
October 2016
World Economic Outlook: Gaining Momentum?
April 2017
World Economic Outlook: Seeking Sustainable Growth: Short-Term Recovery,
Long-Term Challenges
October 2017
World Economic Outlook: Cyclical Upswing, Structural Change
April 2018
World Economic Outlook: Challenges to Steady Growth
October 2018
World Economic Outlook: Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery
April 2019
World Economic Outlook: Global Manufacturing Downturn, Rising Trade Barriers
October 2019
World Economic Outlook: Te Great Lockdown
April 2020
World Economic Outlook: A Long and Difficult Ascent
October 2020
World Economic Outlook: Managing Divergent Recoveries
April 2021
World Economic Outlook: Uncharted Territory: Recovery during a Pandemic
October 2021
World Economic Outlook: War Sets Back the Global Recovery
April 2022
World Economic Outlook: Countering the Cost-of-Living Crisis
October 2022
World Economic Outlook: A Rocky Recovery
April 2023
World Economic Outlook: Navigating Global Divergences
October 2023
I. Methodology—Aggregation, Modeling, and Forecasting
Fiscal Balance Sheets: Te Significance of Nonfinancial Assets and Teir Measurement
October 2014, Box 3.3
Tariff Scenarios
October 2016, Scenario Box
World Growth Projections over the Medium Term
October 2016, Box 1.1
Global Growth Forecast: Assumptions on Policies, Financial Conditions, and Commodity Prices
April 2019, Box 1.2
On the Underlying Source of Changes in Capital Goods Prices: A Model-Based Analysis
April 2019, Box 3.3
Global Growth Forecast: Assumptions on Policies, Financial Conditions, and Commodity Prices
October 2019, Box 1.3
Alternative Evolutions in the Fight against COVID-19
April 2020, Scenario Box
Alternative Scenarios
October 2020, Scenario Box
Revised World Economic Outlook Purchasing-Power-Parity Weights
October 2020, Box 1.1
Scenario Box
April 2021
Downside Scenarios
October 2021, Scenario Box
Scenario Box
April 2022, Scenario Box
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WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: Navigating Global Divergences
Risk Assessment around the World Economic Outlook Baseline Projection
October 2022, Box 1.3
Risk Assessment Surrounding the World Economic Outlook Baseline Projections
April 2023, Box 1.3
Risk Assessment Surrounding the World Economic Outlook’s Baseline Projections
October 2023, Box 1.2
II. Historical Surveys
What Is the Effect of Recessions?
October 2015, Box 1.1
Commodity Market Fragmentation in History: Many Shades of Gray
October 2023, Box 3.2
III. Economic Growth—Sources and Patterns
Spillovers from Policy Uncertainty in the United States and Europe
April 2013, Chapter 2,
Spillover Feature
Breaking through the Frontier: Can Today’s Dynamic Low-Income Countries Make It?
April 2013, Chapter 4
What Explains the Slowdown in the BRICS?
October 2013, Box 1.2
Dancing Together? Spillovers, Common Shocks, and the Role of Financial and Trade Linkages
October 2013, Chapter 3
Output Synchronicity in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan and in the
Caucasus and Central Asia
October 2013, Box 3.1
Spillovers from Changes in U.S. Monetary Policy
October 2013, Box 3.2
Saving and Economic Growth
April 2014, Box 3.1
On the Receiving End? External Conditions and Emerging Market Growth before, during,
and after the Global Financial Crisis
April 2014, Chapter 4
Te Impact of External Conditions on Medium-Term Growth in Emerging Market Economies
April 2014, Box 4.1
Te Origins of IMF Growth Forecast Revisions since 2011
October 2014, Box 1.2
Underlying Drivers of U.S. Yields Matter for Spillovers
October 2014, Chapter 2,
Spillover Feature
Is It Time for an Infrastructure Push? Te Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment
October 2014, Chapter 3
Te Macroeconomic Effects of Scaling Up Public Investment in Developing Economies
October 2014, Box 3.4
Where Are We Headed? Perspectives on Potential Output
April 2015, Chapter 3
Steady as She Goes—Estimating Sustainable Output
April 2015, Box 3.1
Macroeconomic Developments and Outlook in Low-Income Developing Countries—
Te Role of External Factors
April 2016, Box 1.2
Time for a Supply-Side Boost? Macroeconomic Effects of Labor and Product Market
Reforms in Advanced Economies
April 2016, Chapter 3
Road Less Traveled: Growth in Emerging Market and Developing Economies in a Complicated
External Environment
April 2017, Chapter 3
Growing with Flows: Evidence from Industry-Level Data
April 2017, Box 2.2
Emerging Market and Developing Economy Growth: Heterogeneity and Income Convergence
over the Forecast Horizon
October 2017, Box 1.3
Manufacturing Jobs: Implications for Productivity and Inequality
April 2018, Chapter 3
Is Productivity Growth Shared in a Globalized Economy?
April 2018, Chapter 4
Recent Dynamics of Potential Growth
April 2018, Box 1.3
Growth Outlook: Advanced Economies
October 2018, Box 1.2
Growth Outlook: Emerging Market and Developing Economies
October 2018, Box 1.3
Te Global Recovery 10 Years after the 2008 Financial Meltdown
October 2018, Chapter 2
Te Plucking Teory of the Business Cycle
October 2019, Box 1.4
Reigniting Growth in Low-Income and Emerging Market Economies: What Role Can
Structural Reforms Play?
October 2019, Chapter 3
152
International Monetary Fund | October 2023
SELECTED TOPICS
Countering Future Recessions in Advanced Economies: Cyclical Policies in an
Era of Low Rates and High Debt
April 2020, Chapter 2
Te Great Lockdown: Dissecting the Economic Effects
October 2020, Chapter 2
An Overview of the Literature on the Economic Impact of Lockdowns
October 2020, Box 2.1
Global Manufacturing: V-Shaped Recovery and Implications for the Global Outlook
April 2021, Box 1.1
After-Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Prospects for Medium-Term Economic Damage
April 2021, Chapter 2
A Perfect Storm Hits the Hotel and Restaurant Sector
April 2021, Box 2.1
Research and Innovation: Fighting the Pandemic and Boosting Long-Term Growth
October 2021, Chapter 3
Dimming Growth Prospects: A Longer Path to Convergence
October 2023, Box 1.1
Te Uneven Economic Effects of Commodity Market Fragmentation
October 2023, Box 3.3
IV. Inflation and Deflation and Commodity Markets
Commodity Market Review
April 2013, Chapter 1,
Special Feature
Te Dog Tat Didn’t Bark: Has Inflation Been Muzzled or Was It Just Sleeping?
April 2013, Chapter 3
Does Inflation Targeting Still Make Sense with a Flatter Phillips Curve?
April 2013, Box 3.1
Commodity Market Review
October 2013, Chapter 1,
Special Feature
Energy Booms and the Current Account: Cross-Country Experience
October 2013, Box 1.SF.1
Oil Price Drivers and the Narrowing WTI-Brent Spread
October 2013, Box 1.SF.2
Anchoring Inflation Expectations When Inflation Is Undershooting
April 2014, Box 1.3
Commodity Prices and Forecasts
April 2014, Chapter 1,
Special Feature
Commodity Market Developments and Forecasts, with a Focus on Natural Gas
October 2014, Chapter 1,
in the World Economy
Special Feature
Commodity Market Developments and Forecasts, with a Focus on Investment
April 2015, Chapter 1,
in an Era of Low Oil Prices
Special Feature
Te Oil Price Collapse: Demand or Supply?
April 2015, Box 1.1
Commodity Market Developments and Forecasts, with a Focus on Metals in the World Economy
October 2015, Chapter 1,
Special Feature
Te New Frontiers of Metal Extraction: Te North-to-South Shift
October 2015, Chapter 1,
Special Feature Box 1.SF.1
Where Are Commodity Exporters Headed? Output Growth in the Aftermath
of the Commodity Boom
October 2015, Chapter 2
Te Not-So-Sick Patient: Commodity Booms and the Dutch Disease Phenomenon
October 2015, Box 2.1
Do Commodity Exporters’ Economies Overheat during Commodity Booms?
October 2015, Box 2.4
Commodity Market Developments and Forecasts, with a Focus on the
April 2016, Chapter 1,
Energy Transition in an Era of Low Fossil Fuel Prices
Special Feature
Global Disinflation in an Era of Constrained Monetary Policy
October 2016, Chapter 3
Commodity Market Developments and Forecasts, with a Focus on Food Security and
October 2016, Chapter 1,
Markets in the World Economy
Special Feature
How Much Do Global Prices Matter for Food Inflation?
October 2016, Box 3.3
Commodity Market Developments and Forecasts, with a Focus on the Role of Technology and
April 2017, Chapter 1,
Unconventional Sources in the Global Oil Market
Special Feature
Commodity Market Developments and Forecasts
October 2017, Chapter 1,
Special Feature
Commodity Market Developments and Forecasts
April 2018, Chapter 1,
Special Feature
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