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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. Navigating Global Divergences (October 2023) - page 6

 

 

WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: NAVIGATING GLOBAL DIVERGENCES
Table A4. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Real GDP (continued)
(Annual percent change)
Average
Projections
2005-14
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2028
Sub-Saharan Africa
5.5
3.2
1.5
3.0
3.3
3.2
-1.6
4.7
4.0
3.3
4.0
4.3
Angola
7.8
0.9
-2.6
-0.2
-1.3
-0.7
-5.6
1.2
3.0
1.3
3.3
3.6
Benin
4.2
1.8
3.3
5.7
6.7
6.9
3.8
7.2
6.3
5.5
6.3
6.0
Botswana
3.7
-4.9
7.2
4.1
4.2
3.0
-8.7
11.9
5.8
3.8
4.1
4.0
Burkina Faso
5.9
3.9
6.0
6.2
6.6
5.7
1.9
6.9
1.5
4.4
6.4
5.3
Burundi
4.5
-3.9
-0.6
0.5
1.6
1.8
0.3
3.1
1.8
3.3
6.0
5.5
Cabo Verde
4.3
0.9
4.3
4.6
3.7
6.9
-19.6
6.4
17.0
4.4
4.5
4.7
Cameroon
3.6
5.6
4.5
3.5
4.0
3.4
0.5
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.6
Central African Republic
-1.5
4.3
4.7
4.5
3.8
3.0
1.0
1.0
0.5
1.0
2.5
3.3
Chad
5.4
1.8
-5.6
-2.4
2.4
3.4
-2.1
-1.2
3.4
4.0
3.7
3.0
Comoros
2.9
1.1
3.3
3.8
3.6
1.8
-0.2
2.1
2.6
3.0
3.5
4.3
Democratic Republic of the Congo
7.2
6.4
0.4
3.7
4.8
4.5
1.7
6.2
8.9
6.7
4.7
5.2
Republic of Congo
5.5
-3.6
-5.0
-5.6
-2.3
1.1
-6.3
1.1
1.7
4.0
4.4
4.0
Côte d’Ivoire
3.6
8.8
7.2
7.4
4.8
6.5
1.7
7.0
6.7
6.2
6.6
6.0
Equatorial Guinea
4.8
-9.1
-8.8
-5.7
-6.2
-5.5
-4.8
-0.4
3.2
-6.2
-5.5
-0.6
Eritrea1
4.5
-20.6
7.4
-10.0
13.0
3.8
Eswatini
3.5
2.2
1.1
2.0
2.4
2.7
-1.6
7.9
3.6
3.1
3.3
2.8
Ethiopia
10.8
10.4
8.0
10.2
7.7
9.0
6.1
6.3
6.4
6.1
6.2
7.0
Gabon
3.1
3.9
2.1
0.5
0.9
3.8
-1.8
1.5
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.8
The Gambia
1.7
4.1
1.9
4.8
7.2
6.2
0.6
5.3
4.9
5.6
6.2
5.0
Ghana
7.1
2.1
3.4
8.1
6.2
6.5
0.5
5.1
3.1
1.2
2.7
5.0
Guinea
3.8
3.8
10.8
10.3
6.4
5.6
4.7
5.0
4.3
5.9
5.6
5.2
Guinea-Bissau
3.5
6.1
5.3
4.8
3.8
4.5
1.5
6.4
4.2
4.5
5.0
4.5
Kenya
4.8
5.0
4.2
3.8
5.7
5.1
-0.3
7.6
4.8
5.0
5.3
5.3
Lesotho
3.5
3.2
1.9
-2.7
-1.3
-2.0
-3.9
1.8
2.1
2.1
2.3
1.6
Liberia
7.0
0.0
-1.6
2.5
1.2
-2.5
-3.0
5.0
4.8
4.6
5.3
7.3
Madagascar
2.9
3.1
4.0
3.9
3.2
4.4
-7.1
5.7
4.0
4.0
4.8
4.5
Malawi
5.8
3.0
2.3
4.0
4.4
5.4
0.9
4.6
0.8
1.7
3.3
4.6
Mali
4.1
6.2
5.9
5.3
4.7
4.8
-1.2
3.1
3.7
4.5
4.8
5.0
Mauritius
3.9
3.7
3.9
3.9
4.0
2.9
-14.6
3.4
8.7
5.1
3.8
3.3
Mozambique
7.3
6.7
3.8
3.7
3.4
2.3
-1.2
2.4
4.2
7.0
5.0
12.1
Namibia
4.3
4.3
0.0
-1.0
1.1
-0.8
-8.1
3.5
4.6
2.8
2.7
2.6
Niger
5.9
4.4
5.7
5.0
7.0
6.1
3.5
1.4
11.9
4.1
11.1
6.0
Nigeria
6.9
2.7
-1.6
0.8
1.9
2.2
-1.8
3.6
3.3
2.9
3.1
3.1
Rwanda
7.8
8.9
6.0
3.9
8.5
9.5
-3.4
10.9
8.2
6.2
7.0
7.3
São Tomé and Príncipe
4.7
1.5
5.2
4.1
4.4
2.0
2.6
1.9
0.1
0.5
2.4
3.7
Senegal
3.3
6.4
6.4
7.4
6.2
4.6
1.3
6.5
4.0
4.1
8.8
5.3
Seychelles
5.2
9.7
12.7
6.6
6.2
5.2
-8.5
2.5
8.9
4.2
3.9
3.6
Sierra Leone
7.6
-20.5
6.4
3.8
3.5
5.3
-2.0
4.1
4.0
2.7
4.7
4.6
South Africa
3.0
1.3
0.7
1.2
1.6
0.3
-6.0
4.7
1.9
0.9
1.8
1.4
South Sudan
-0.2
-13.3
-5.8
-2.1
0.9
-6.5
5.3
0.5
3.5
4.2
5.4
Tanzania
6.4
6.2
6.9
6.8
7.0
7.0
4.8
4.9
4.7
5.2
6.1
7.0
Togo
3.8
5.5
5.7
4.0
4.8
4.9
2.0
6.0
5.8
5.4
5.3
5.5
Uganda
7.1
8.0
0.2
6.8
5.6
7.6
-1.2
5.7
6.4
4.6
5.7
6.3
Zambia
7.4
2.9
3.8
3.5
4.0
1.4
-2.8
4.6
4.7
3.6
4.3
5.1
Zimbabwe1
2.6
1.8
0.8
5.2
5.0
-6.3
-7.8
8.4
6.2
4.1
3.6
3.0
1See the country-specific notes for Afghanistan, Eritrea, India, Lebanon, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Türkiye, Ukraine, Uruguay, and Zimbabwe in the “Country Notes” section of the Statistical
Appendix.
2Data for Timor-Leste exclude projections for oil exports from the Joint Petroleum Development Area.
3Data for 2011 exclude South Sudan after July 9. Data for 2012 and onward pertain to the current Sudan.
4Data for Syria are excluded for 2011 onward owing to the uncertain political situation.
126
International Monetary Fund | October 2023
STATISTICAL APPENDIX
Table A5. Summary of Inflation
(Percent)
Average
Projections
2005-14
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2028
GDP Deflators
Advanced Economies
1.5
1.3
1.0
1.5
1.7
1.5
1.6
3.2
5.4
4.0
2.8
1.9
United States
2.0
1.0
1.0
1.9
2.4
1.8
1.3
4.5
7.0
3.7
2.3
1.9
Euro Area
1.5
1.4
0.9
1.1
1.5
1.7
1.8
2.1
4.6
5.2
3.6
1.9
Japan
-0.7
2.1
0.4
-0.1
0.0
0.6
0.9
-0.2
0.3
3.6
3.1
1.8
Other Advanced Economies1
1.9
1.2
1.2
1.9
1.6
1.3
2.1
3.6
5.5
3.1
2.6
2.0
Consumer Prices
Advanced Economies
1.9
0.3
0.7
1.7
2.0
1.4
0.7
3.1
7.3
4.6
3.0
2.0
United States
2.3
0.1
1.3
2.1
2.4
1.8
1.3
4.7
8.0
4.1
2.8
2.1
Euro Area2
1.9
0.2
0.2
1.5
1.8
1.2
0.3
2.6
8.4
5.6
3.3
1.9
Japan
0.2
0.8
-0.1
0.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.2
2.5
3.2
2.9
1.6
Other Advanced Economies1
2.3
0.5
0.9
1.8
1.9
1.4
0.6
2.5
6.5
5.0
2.9
2.0
Emerging Market and Developing Economies3
6.2
4.8
4.4
4.5
4.9
5.1
5.2
5.9
9.8
8.5
7.8
5.0
Regional Groups
Emerging and Developing Asia
4.9
2.7
2.9
2.4
2.6
3.3
3.2
2.2
3.8
2.6
2.7
2.8
Emerging and Developing Europe
8.0
10.7
5.6
5.6
6.4
6.7
5.4
9.6
27.9
18.9
19.9
12.4
Latin America and the Caribbean
4.8
5.4
5.5
6.3
6.5
7.6
6.4
9.8
14.0
13.8
10.7
5.7
Middle East and Central Asia
8.5
5.6
5.9
7.1
9.9
7.6
10.4
12.8
14.0
18.0
15.2
7.3
Sub-Saharan Africa
8.3
6.7
10.1
10.5
8.3
8.1
10.1
11.0
14.5
15.8
13.1
7.4
Analytical Groups
By Source of Export Earnings
Fuel
8.3
5.6
7.7
6.5
9.0
6.8
9.4
11.8
13.8
14.0
11.1
7.8
Nonfuel
5.8
4.7
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.9
4.7
5.2
9.3
7.9
7.4
4.7
Of which, Primary Products4
7.2
5.9
7.3
13.1
15.6
19.6
21.5
26.1
31.2
42.2
32.0
13.2
By External Financing Source
Net Debtor Economies
7.0
5.5
5.3
5.7
5.6
5.4
5.9
7.4
12.9
11.6
10.3
6.1
Net Debtor Economies by
Debt-Servicing Experience
Economies with Arrears and/or
Rescheduling during 2018-22
10.2
12.8
10.7
15.3
14.3
11.6
13.9
17.6
21.9
26.1
23.1
8.3
Other Groups
European Union
2.1
0.1
0.1
1.6
1.9
1.4
0.7
2.9
9.3
6.5
3.6
2.0
Middle East and North Africa
8.2
5.7
5.7
7.2
11.3
8.0
10.8
14.0
14.4
17.5
15.0
7.8
Emerging Market and Middle-Income
Economies
5.9
4.6
4.0
4.1
4.6
4.8
4.6
5.3
9.4
7.8
7.4
4.8
Low-Income Developing Countries
9.4
6.5
8.2
9.0
8.8
8.2
11.2
12.8
13.9
15.7
12.2
6.8
Memorandum
Median Inflation Rate
Advanced Economies
2.1
0.1
0.4
1.6
1.7
1.4
0.3
2.5
8.1
5.2
3.3
2.0
Emerging Market and Developing Economies3
5.2
2.6
2.7
3.3
3.1
2.6
2.8
3.9
7.9
6.1
4.4
3.0
1Excludes the United States, euro area countries, and Japan.
2Based on Eurostat’s harmonized index of consumer prices.
3Excludes Venezuela but includes Argentina from 2017 onward. See the country-specific notes for Argentina and Venezuela in the “Country Notes” section of the Statistical Appendix.
4Includes Argentina from 2017 onward. See the country-specific note for Argentina in the “Country Notes” section of the Statistical Appendix.
International Monetary Fund | October 2023
127
WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: NAVIGATING GLOBAL DIVERGENCES
Table A6. Advanced Economies: Consumer Prices1
(Annual percent change)
End of Period2
Average
Projections
Projections
2005-14
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2028
2022
2023
2024
Advanced Economies
1.9
0.3
0.7
1.7
2.0
1.4
0.7
3.1
7.3
4.6
3.0
2.0
7.2
3.3
2.6
United States
2.3
0.1
1.3
2.1
2.4
1.8
1.3
4.7
8.0
4.1
2.8
2.1
6.4
3.0
2.6
Euro Area3
1.9
0.2
0.2
1.5
1.8
1.2
0.3
2.6
8.4
5.6
3.3
1.9
9.2
3.3
2.7
Germany
1.7
0.7
0.4
1.7
1.9
1.4
0.4
3.2
8.7
6.3
3.5
2.0
9.8
4.1
2.8
France
1.6
0.1
0.3
1.2
2.1
1.3
0.5
2.1
5.9
5.6
2.5
1.6
7.0
4.0
1.9
Italy
2.0
0.1
-0.1
1.3
1.2
0.6
-0.1
1.9
8.7
6.0
2.6
2.0
12.3
1.1
3.0
Spain
2.2
-0.6
-0.3
2.0
1.7
0.8
-0.3
3.0
8.3
3.5
3.9
1.7
5.5
4.0
3.4
The Netherlands
1.7
0.2
0.1
1.3
1.6
2.7
1.1
2.8
11.6
4.0
4.2
2.0
11.1
1.4
2.4
Belgium
2.1
0.6
1.8
2.2
2.3
1.3
0.4
3.2
10.3
2.5
4.3
2.0
10.2
0.4
4.0
Ireland
1.1
0.0
-0.2
0.3
0.7
0.9
-0.5
2.4
8.1
5.2
3.0
2.0
8.1
3.4
2.6
Austria
2.1
0.8
1.0
2.2
2.1
1.5
1.4
2.8
8.6
7.8
3.7
2.0
10.5
5.6
3.2
Portugal
1.7
0.5
0.6
1.6
1.2
0.3
-0.1
0.9
8.1
5.3
3.4
2.0
9.8
3.3
2.6
Greece
2.2
-1.1
0.0
1.1
0.8
0.5
-1.3
0.6
9.3
4.1
2.8
1.9
7.6
2.9
2.7
Finland
2.1
-0.2
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.1
0.4
2.1
7.2
4.5
1.9
2.0
8.8
4.5
1.9
Slovak Republic
2.4
-0.3
-0.5
1.4
2.5
2.8
2.0
2.8
12.1
10.9
4.8
1.8
15.0
6.3
4.5
Croatia
2.6
-0.3
-0.6
1.3
1.6
0.8
0.0
2.7
10.7
8.6
4.2
2.1
12.7
6.2
3.2
Lithuania
3.7
-0.7
0.7
3.7
2.5
2.2
1.1
4.6
18.9
9.3
3.9
2.4
20.0
3.5
3.1
Slovenia
2.3
-0.5
-0.1
1.4
1.7
1.6
-0.1
1.9
8.8
7.4
4.2
1.9
10.3
4.8
3.3
Luxembourg
2.5
0.1
0.0
2.1
2.0
1.7
0.0
3.5
8.1
3.2
3.3
2.0
6.3
4.2
1.7
Latvia
4.7
0.2
0.1
2.9
2.6
2.7
0.1
3.2
17.2
9.9
4.2
2.3
20.7
4.6
4.3
Estonia
4.1
0.1
0.8
3.7
3.4
2.3
-0.6
4.5
19.4
10.0
3.8
2.5
17.5
5.2
3.6
Cyprus
2.0
-1.5
-1.2
0.7
0.8
0.6
-1.1
2.2
8.1
3.5
2.4
2.0
7.6
2.2
2.2
Malta
2.2
1.2
0.9
1.3
1.7
1.5
0.8
0.7
6.1
5.8
3.1
2.0
7.5
4.7
2.4
Japan
0.2
0.8
-0.1
0.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.2
2.5
3.2
2.9
1.6
3.9
2.7
2.6
United Kingdom
2.7
0.0
0.7
2.7
2.5
1.8
0.9
2.6
9.1
7.7
3.7
2.0
10.5
5.2
2.4
Korea
2.7
0.7
1.0
1.9
1.5
0.4
0.5
2.5
5.1
3.4
2.3
2.0
5.0
2.9
2.0
Canada
1.8
1.1
1.4
1.6
2.3
1.9
0.7
3.4
6.8
3.6
2.4
2.0
6.6
2.7
2.1
Taiwan Province of China
1.4
-0.3
1.4
0.6
1.4
0.6
-0.2
2.0
2.9
2.1
1.5
1.5
2.7
2.5
1.8
Australia
2.8
1.5
1.3
2.0
1.9
1.6
0.9
2.8
6.6
5.8
4.0
2.6
7.8
4.7
3.4
Switzerland
0.5
-1.1
-0.4
0.5
0.9
0.4
-0.7
0.6
2.8
2.2
2.0
1.5
2.9
1.9
1.9
Singapore
2.7
-0.5
-0.5
0.6
0.4
0.6
-0.2
2.3
6.1
5.5
3.5
2.0
6.5
5.2
3.2
Sweden
1.4
0.7
1.1
1.9
2.0
1.7
0.7
2.7
8.1
6.9
3.6
2.0
11.5
5.8
2.8
Hong Kong SAR
3.0
3.0
2.4
1.5
2.4
2.9
0.3
1.6
1.9
2.2
2.3
2.5
2.0
2.6
2.3
Czech Republic
2.3
0.3
0.7
2.5
2.1
2.8
3.2
3.8
15.1
10.9
4.6
2.0
15.8
8.3
2.2
Israel
2.2
-0.6
-0.5
0.2
0.8
0.8
-0.6
1.5
4.4
4.3
3.0
2.1
5.3
3.6
2.6
Norway
1.9
2.2
3.6
1.9
2.8
2.2
1.3
3.5
5.8
5.8
3.7
2.0
5.9
4.8
3.2
Denmark
1.8
0.2
0.0
1.1
0.7
0.7
0.3
1.9
8.5
4.2
2.8
2.0
9.6
2.5
2.5
New Zealand
2.5
0.3
0.6
1.9
1.6
1.6
1.7
3.9
7.2
4.9
2.7
2.0
7.2
2.8
2.5
Puerto Rico
2.9
-0.8
-0.3
1.8
1.3
0.1
-0.5
2.4
5.9
2.9
1.5
2.7
6.2
1.1
1.9
Macao SAR
5.1
4.6
2.4
1.2
3.0
2.8
0.8
0.0
1.0
0.9
1.7
1.7
0.8
0.9
1.7
Iceland
6.0
1.6
1.7
1.8
2.7
3.0
2.8
4.5
8.3
8.6
4.5
2.5
9.6
7.3
4.0
Andorra
1.9
-1.1
-0.4
2.6
1.0
0.5
0.1
1.7
6.2
5.2
3.5
1.7
7.2
4.4
2.0
San Marino
2.3
0.1
0.6
1.0
1.2
0.5
-0.1
2.1
5.3
5.9
2.5
2.0
7.0
5.9
2.5
Memorandum
Major Advanced Economies
1.9
0.3
0.8
1.8
2.1
1.5
0.8
3.3
7.3
4.7
2.9
2.0
7.2
3.2
2.5
1Movements in consumer prices are shown as annual averages.
2Monthly year-over-year changes and, for several countries, on a quarterly basis.
3Based on Eurostat’s harmonized index of consumer prices, except in the case of Slovenia.
128
International Monetary Fund | October 2023
STATISTICAL APPENDIX
Table A7. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Consumer Prices1
(Annual percent change)
End of Period2
Average
Projections
Projections
2005-14
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2028
2022
2023
2024
Emerging and Developing Asia
4.9
2.7
2.9
2.4
2.6
3.3
3.2
2.2
3.8
2.6
2.7
2.8
4.0
2.4
2.8
Bangladesh
7.7
6.4
5.9
5.4
5.8
5.5
5.6
5.6
6.1
9.0
7.9
5.5
7.6
9.7
7.2
Bhutan
6.9
6.7
3.3
4.3
3.7
2.8
3.0
8.2
5.9
5.2
4.4
4.0
6.5
3.8
5.1
Brunei Darussalam
0.6
-0.5
-0.3
-1.3
1.0
-0.4
1.9
1.7
3.7
1.7
1.5
1.0
3.3
1.7
1.5
Cambodia
6.2
1.2
3.0
2.9
2.5
1.9
2.9
2.9
5.3
2.0
3.0
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.0
China
2.9
1.5
2.1
1.5
1.9
2.9
2.5
0.9
1.9
0.7
1.7
2.2
1.8
0.9
1.9
Fiji
3.9
1.4
3.9
3.3
4.1
1.8
-2.6
0.2
4.3
3.0
3.5
3.0
3.1
4.5
2.6
India
8.4
4.9
4.5
3.6
3.4
4.8
6.2
5.5
6.7
5.5
4.6
4.0
6.2
4.9
4.4
Indonesia
7.1
6.4
3.5
3.8
3.3
2.8
2.0
1.6
4.2
3.6
2.5
1.6
5.5
2.3
2.5
Kiribati
2.0
0.6
1.9
0.4
0.6
-1.8
2.6
2.1
5.3
9.0
3.5
1.8
16.2
-2.0
4.0
Lao P.D.R.
5.4
1.3
1.6
0.8
2.0
3.3
5.1
3.8
23.0
28.1
9.0
3.0
39.3
16.9
3.0
Malaysia
2.6
2.1
2.1
3.8
1.0
0.7
-1.1
2.5
3.4
2.9
2.7
1.9
3.8
2.9
2.7
Maldives
6.4
1.4
0.8
2.3
1.4
1.3
-1.6
0.2
2.6
3.5
2.8
2.0
3.3
3.6
2.4
Marshall Islands
4.0
-2.2
-1.5
0.1
0.8
-0.1
-0.7
2.2
3.2
5.2
2.8
2.0
5.7
3.0
2.6
Micronesia
4.3
0.0
-0.9
0.1
1.0
2.2
1.0
1.8
5.0
5.3
4.1
2.0
6.9
3.8
3.0
Mongolia
11.5
6.8
0.7
4.3
6.8
7.3
3.7
7.4
15.2
12.3
12.2
7.0
13.2
11.7
12.8
Myanmar
10.4
7.3
9.1
4.6
5.9
8.6
5.7
3.6
16.2
14.2
7.8
7.8
20.4
11.1
7.2
Nauru
4.8
9.8
8.2
5.1
-14.4
4.2
1.0
2.0
4.8
6.1
5.0
1.9
6.4
5.8
4.2
Nepal
8.4
7.2
9.9
4.5
4.1
4.6
6.1
3.6
6.3
7.8
6.7
5.4
8.1
6.8
6.5
Palau
4.1
2.2
-1.3
1.1
2.4
0.4
0.7
-0.5
13.2
12.5
4.6
2.3
13.7
9.5
1.8
Papua New Guinea
4.7
6.0
6.7
5.4
4.4
3.9
4.9
4.5
5.3
5.0
4.9
4.5
3.4
5.7
4.7
Philippines
4.5
0.7
1.2
2.9
5.3
2.4
2.4
3.9
5.8
5.8
3.2
3.0
8.1
3.6
3.3
Samoa
4.3
1.9
0.1
1.3
3.7
2.2
1.5
-3.0
8.7
12.0
5.0
3.0
10.8
10.7
4.5
Solomon Islands
7.5
-0.6
0.5
0.5
3.5
1.6
3.0
-0.1
5.5
4.9
4.0
3.2
8.5
4.4
3.6
Sri Lanka3
9.1
2.2
4.0
6.6
4.3
4.3
4.6
6.0
45.2
54.5
Thailand
3.0
-0.9
0.2
0.7
1.1
0.7
-0.8
1.2
6.1
1.5
1.6
2.0
5.9
0.6
1.8
Timor-Leste
6.1
0.6
-1.5
0.5
2.3
0.9
0.5
3.8
7.0
6.0
2.5
2.0
6.9
6.0
2.5
Tonga
5.1
0.1
-0.6
7.2
6.8
3.3
0.4
1.4
8.5
10.2
5.8
3.4
11.3
7.4
6.2
Tuvalu
2.3
3.1
3.5
4.1
2.2
3.5
1.9
6.2
11.5
6.2
3.8
2.8
13.6
6.2
3.8
Vanuatu
2.3
2.5
0.8
3.1
2.4
2.7
5.3
2.3
7.0
9.3
5.7
3.0
12.4
8.3
5.6
Vietnam
10.0
0.6
2.7
3.5
3.5
2.8
3.2
1.8
3.2
3.4
3.4
3.4
4.6
4.1
3.4
Emerging and Developing Europe
8.0
10.7
5.6
5.6
6.4
6.7
5.4
9.6
27.9
18.9
19.9
12.4
26.7
20.3
17.2
Albania
2.6
1.9
1.3
2.0
2.0
1.4
1.6
2.0
6.7
4.8
4.0
3.0
7.4
3.8
3.6
Belarus
19.8
13.5
11.8
6.0
4.9
5.6
5.5
9.5
15.2
4.7
5.7
5.0
12.9
3.4
3.7
Bosnia and Herzegovina
2.5
-1.0
-1.6
0.8
1.4
0.6
-1.1
2.0
14.0
5.5
3.0
2.0
14.8
2.2
2.1
Bulgaria
4.2
-1.1
-1.3
1.2
2.6
2.5
1.2
2.8
13.0
8.5
3.0
2.0
14.3
4.7
2.2
Hungary
4.1
-0.1
0.4
2.4
2.8
3.4
3.3
5.1
14.5
17.7
6.6
3.1
24.5
8.2
5.4
Kosovo
2.5
-0.5
0.2
1.5
1.1
2.7
0.2
3.3
11.7
4.7
3.1
2.0
12.2
1.5
3.7
Moldova
7.8
9.6
6.4
6.5
3.6
4.8
3.8
5.1
28.6
13.3
5.0
5.0
30.2
5.0
5.0
Montenegro
3.1
1.5
-0.3
2.4
2.6
0.4
-0.2
2.4
13.0
8.3
4.3
1.9
17.2
5.1
3.1
North Macedonia
2.5
-0.3
-0.2
1.4
1.5
0.8
1.2
3.2
14.2
10.0
4.3
2.0
18.7
5.7
2.3
Poland
2.6
-0.9
-0.7
2.0
1.8
2.2
3.4
5.1
14.4
12.0
6.4
2.5
16.6
7.4
5.5
Romania
5.4
-0.6
-1.6
1.3
4.6
3.8
2.6
5.0
13.8
10.7
5.8
2.5
16.4
7.8
4.7
Russia
9.2
15.5
7.0
3.7
2.9
4.5
3.4
6.7
13.8
5.3
6.3
4.0
12.2
5.7
5.0
Serbia
8.7
1.4
1.1
3.1
2.0
1.8
1.6
4.1
12.0
12.4
5.3
3.0
15.1
8.2
4.0
Türkiye3
8.3
7.7
7.8
11.1
16.3
15.2
12.3
19.6
72.3
51.2
62.5
37.4
64.3
64.0
54.3
Ukraine3
10.4
48.7
13.9
14.4
10.9
7.9
2.7
9.4
20.2
17.7
13.0
5.0
26.6
15.5
10.0
Latin America and the Caribbean4
4.8
5.4
5.5
6.3
6.5
7.6
6.4
9.8
14.0
13.8
10.7
5.7
14.6
13.6
8.8
Antigua and Barbuda
2.2
1.0
-0.5
2.4
1.2
1.4
1.1
1.6
7.5
5.0
2.9
2.0
9.2
4.0
2.5
Argentina3
25.7
34.3
53.5
42.0
48.4
72.4
121.7
93.7
32.5
94.8
135.7
69.5
Aruba
2.4
0.5
-0.9
-1.0
3.6
3.9
-1.3
0.7
5.5
4.5
2.3
2.0
5.7
3.2
2.2
The Bahamas
2.0
1.9
-0.3
1.5
2.3
2.5
0.0
2.9
5.6
3.9
3.2
2.0
5.5
3.4
2.6
Barbados
5.2
-1.1
1.5
4.4
-44.4
2.3
0.5
1.5
5.0
5.2
3.1
2.4
5.7
5.0
3.6
Belize
2.1
-0.9
0.7
1.1
0.3
0.2
0.1
3.2
6.3
3.7
1.7
1.2
6.7
2.0
1.2
Bolivia
6.2
4.1
3.6
2.8
2.3
1.8
0.9
0.7
1.7
3.0
4.4
3.8
3.1
3.6
3.8
Brazil
5.5
9.0
8.7
3.4
3.7
3.7
3.2
8.3
9.3
4.7
4.5
3.0
5.8
4.9
3.9
Chile
3.5
4.3
3.8
2.2
2.3
2.2
3.0
4.5
11.6
7.8
3.6
3.0
12.8
4.5
3.0
Colombia
4.0
5.0
7.5
4.3
3.2
3.5
2.5
3.5
10.2
11.4
5.2
3.0
13.1
8.8
4.5
International Monetary Fund | October 2023
129
WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: NAVIGATING GLOBAL DIVERGENCES
Table A7. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Consumer Prices1
(continued)
(Annual percent change)
End of Period2
Average
Projections
Projections
2005-14
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2028
2022
2023
2024
Latin America and
the Caribbean
(continued)4
4.8
5.4
5.5
6.3
6.5
7.6
6.4
9.8
14.0
13.8
10.7
5.7
14.6
13.6
8.8
Costa Rica
8.0
0.8
0.0
1.6
2.2
2.1
0.7
1.7
8.3
0.7
1.9
3.0
7.9
-0.9
3.0
Dominica
2.0
-0.9
0.1
0.3
1.0
1.5
-0.7
1.6
6.8
6.2
2.8
2.0
6.6
5.0
2.9
Dominican Republic
5.6
0.8
1.6
3.3
3.6
1.8
3.8
8.2
8.8
4.9
4.2
4.0
7.8
4.0
4.0
Ecuador
4.1
4.0
1.7
0.4
-0.2
0.3
-0.3
0.1
3.5
2.3
1.8
1.5
3.7
2.4
1.5
El Salvador
3.1
-0.7
0.6
1.0
1.1
0.1
-0.4
3.5
7.2
4.4
2.4
2.0
7.3
3.1
1.7
Grenada
2.7
-0.6
1.7
0.9
0.8
0.6
-0.7
1.2
2.6
3.6
2.5
2.0
2.9
3.4
2.6
Guatemala
5.7
2.4
4.4
4.4
3.8
3.7
3.2
4.3
6.9
6.3
5.5
4.0
9.2
5.4
4.6
Guyana
5.0
-0.9
0.8
1.9
1.3
2.1
1.2
3.3
6.5
5.5
4.7
5.5
7.2
3.8
5.5
Haiti
7.4
5.3
11.4
10.6
11.4
17.3
22.9
15.9
27.6
43.6
13.4
9.7
38.7
30.1
12.7
Honduras
6.6
3.2
2.7
3.9
4.3
4.4
3.5
4.5
9.1
6.4
4.7
4.0
9.8
5.3
4.2
Jamaica
10.8
3.7
2.3
4.4
3.7
3.9
5.2
5.9
10.3
6.5
5.0
5.0
9.4
5.0
5.0
Mexico
4.1
2.7
2.8
6.0
4.9
3.6
3.4
5.7
7.9
5.5
3.8
3.0
7.8
4.5
3.2
Nicaragua
8.6
4.0
3.5
3.9
4.9
5.4
3.7
4.9
10.5
9.1
5.0
4.0
11.6
7.6
4.8
Panama
4.2
0.1
0.7
0.9
0.8
-0.4
-1.6
1.6
2.9
1.5
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.2
Paraguay
6.1
3.1
4.1
3.6
4.0
2.8
1.8
4.8
9.8
4.7
4.1
4.0
8.1
4.1
4.0
Peru
2.9
3.5
3.6
2.8
1.3
2.1
1.8
4.0
7.9
6.5
2.9
2.0
8.5
4.2
2.2
St. Kitts and Nevis
3.2
-2.3
-0.7
0.7
-1.0
-0.3
-1.2
1.2
2.7
2.9
2.3
2.0
3.9
2.6
2.3
St. Lucia
3.1
-1.0
-3.1
0.1
2.6
0.5
-1.8
2.4
6.4
3.6
2.0
2.0
6.9
2.2
2.1
St. Vincent and the
Grenadines
3.1
-1.7
-0.2
2.2
2.3
0.9
-0.6
1.6
5.7
4.4
2.4
2.0
6.7
3.4
2.0
Suriname
8.0
6.9
55.5
22.0
6.9
4.4
34.9
59.1
52.4
53.3
30.9
5.0
54.6
40.0
20.0
Trinidad and Tobago
7.8
4.7
3.1
1.9
1.0
1.0
0.6
2.1
5.8
5.4
2.9
1.9
8.7
3.5
2.3
Uruguay
7.4
8.7
9.6
6.2
7.6
7.9
9.8
7.7
9.1
6.1
5.9
4.7
8.3
5.4
5.7
Venezuela3
27.7
121.7
254.9
438.1
65,374.1
19,906.0
2,355.1
1,588.5
186.5
360.0
200.0
234.0
250.0
230.0
Middle East and
Central Asia
8.5
5.6
5.9
7.1
9.9
7.6
10.4
12.8
14.0
18.0
15.2
7.3
15.9
18.5
12.8
Afghanistan3
7.5
-0.7
4.4
5.0
0.6
2.3
5.6
5.1
13.7
5.2
Algeria
4.1
4.8
6.4
5.6
4.3
2.0
2.4
7.2
9.3
9.0
6.8
5.2
9.3
8.0
6.8
Armenia
4.7
3.7
-1.4
1.2
2.5
1.4
1.2
7.2
8.6
3.5
4.0
4.0
8.3
4.0
4.0
Azerbaijan
7.3
4.0
12.4
12.9
2.3
2.6
2.8
6.7
13.9
10.3
5.6
4.0
14.4
6.3
5.0
Bahrain
2.5
1.8
2.8
1.4
2.1
1.0
-2.3
-0.6
3.6
1.0
1.4
2.2
3.6
1.0
1.4
Djibouti
4.1
-0.8
2.7
0.6
0.1
3.3
1.8
1.2
5.2
1.2
1.8
2.5
3.6
2.2
2.5
Egypt
10.0
11.0
10.2
23.5
20.9
13.9
5.7
4.5
8.5
23.5
32.2
9.5
13.2
35.7
25.9
Georgia
5.5
4.0
2.1
6.0
2.6
4.9
5.2
9.6
11.9
2.4
2.7
3.0
9.8
0.8
3.0
Iran
18.9
11.9
9.1
9.6
30.2
34.7
36.4
40.2
45.8
47.0
32.5
25.0
54.0
40.0
25.0
Iraq
12.7
1.4
0.5
0.2
0.4
-0.2
0.6
6.0
5.0
5.3
3.6
2.0
4.3
5.0
3.0
Jordan
4.7
-1.1
-0.6
3.6
4.5
0.7
0.4
1.3
4.2
2.7
2.6
2.5
4.4
2.6
2.6
Kazakhstan
8.4
6.7
14.6
7.4
6.0
5.2
6.8
8.0
15.0
15.0
9.0
5.0
20.3
11.5
7.5
Kuwait
3.3
2.9
1.6
0.6
1.1
2.1
3.4
4.0
3.4
3.1
1.9
3.1
Kyrgyz Republic
9.1
6.5
0.4
3.2
1.5
1.1
6.3
11.9
13.9
11.7
8.6
4.0
14.7
10.0
8.0
Lebanon3
4.0
-3.8
-0.8
4.5
6.1
2.9
84.9
154.8
171.2
122.0
Libya
5.2
10.0
25.9
25.9
14.0
-2.9
1.5
2.9
4.5
3.4
2.9
2.5
4.1
2.5
2.5
Mauritania
6.0
0.5
1.5
2.3
3.1
2.3
2.4
3.6
9.6
7.5
4.0
4.0
11.0
4.0
4.0
Morocco
1.6
1.4
1.5
0.7
1.6
0.2
0.7
1.4
6.6
6.3
3.5
2.1
8.3
4.0
3.3
Oman
3.9
0.1
1.1
1.6
0.9
0.1
-0.9
1.5
2.8
1.1
1.7
2.0
1.9
-0.7
1.7
Pakistan
10.7
4.5
2.9
4.1
3.9
6.7
10.7
8.9
12.1
29.2
23.6
6.5
21.3
29.4
17.5
Qatar
5.1
0.9
2.7
0.6
0.1
-0.9
-2.5
2.3
5.0
2.8
2.3
2.0
5.9
0.8
2.3
Saudi Arabia
3.4
1.2
2.1
-0.8
2.5
-2.1
3.4
3.1
2.5
2.5
2.2
2.0
2.0
2.5
2.2
Somalia
0.9
0.0
4.0
4.3
4.5
4.3
4.6
6.8
5.7
4.1
3.2
6.1
4.6
3.9
Sudan3,5
19.1
16.9
17.8
32.4
63.3
51.0
163.3
359.1
138.8
256.2
152.4
39.0
87.3
238.3
127.3
Syria6
Tajikistan
9.2
5.8
5.9
7.3
3.8
7.8
8.6
9.0
6.6
4.6
5.7
6.5
4.2
5.0
6.5
Tunisia
4.0
4.4
3.6
5.3
7.3
6.7
5.6
5.7
8.3
9.4
9.8
5.6
10.1
8.5
10.6
Turkmenistan
6.4
7.4
3.6
8.0
13.3
5.1
6.1
19.5
11.2
5.9
10.5
10.0
3.0
11.0
10.0
United Arab Emirates
3.9
4.1
1.6
2.0
3.1
-1.9
-2.1
-0.1
4.8
3.1
2.3
2.0
4.8
3.1
2.3
Uzbekistan
11.8
8.5
8.8
13.9
17.5
14.5
12.9
10.8
11.4
10.2
10.0
5.2
12.3
9.9
10.7
West Bank and Gaza
3.6
1.4
-0.2
0.2
-0.2
1.6
-0.7
1.2
3.7
3.4
2.7
2.0
4.1
3.0
2.5
Yemen
11.0
22.0
21.3
30.4
33.6
15.7
21.7
31.5
29.5
14.9
17.3
10.0
-2.7
20.0
15.0
130
International Monetary Fund | October 2023
STATISTICAL APPENDIX
Table A7. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Consumer Prices1
(continued)
(Annual percent change)
End of Period2
Average
Projections
Projections
2005-14
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2028
2022
2023
2024
Sub-Saharan Africa
8.3
6.7
10.1
10.5
8.3
8.1
10.1
11.0
14.5
15.8
13.1
7.4
16.2
16.2
10.5
Angola
12.8
9.2
30.7
29.8
19.6
17.1
22.3
25.8
21.4
13.1
22.3
9.1
13.8
17.2
25.6
Benin
3.0
0.2
-0.8
1.8
0.8
-0.9
3.0
1.7
1.4
5.0
2.5
2.0
2.9
5.0
2.5
Botswana
8.1
3.1
2.8
3.3
3.2
2.7
1.9
6.7
12.2
5.9
4.7
4.5
12.4
5.1
4.4
Burkina Faso
2.6
1.7
0.4
1.5
2.0
-3.2
1.9
3.9
14.1
1.4
3.0
2.0
9.6
2.4
2.0
Burundi
10.4
5.6
5.5
16.6
-2.8
-0.7
7.3
8.3
18.9
20.1
16.1
10.2
26.6
12.3
22.4
Cabo Verde
2.8
0.1
-1.4
0.8
1.3
1.1
0.6
1.9
7.9
5.2
2.0
2.0
7.6
5.2
2.0
Cameroon
2.7
2.7
0.9
0.6
1.1
2.5
2.5
2.3
6.3
7.2
4.8
2.0
7.3
6.3
3.7
Central African Republic
5.3
1.4
4.9
4.2
1.6
2.8
0.9
4.3
5.8
6.5
3.2
2.6
7.6
5.5
2.5
Chad
3.3
4.8
-1.6
-0.9
4.0
-1.0
4.5
-0.8
5.8
7.0
3.5
3.0
8.3
4.6
3.1
Comoros
3.3
0.9
0.8
0.1
1.7
3.7
0.8
0.0
12.4
11.1
1.2
1.9
20.6
0.7
1.6
Democratic Republic of the Congo
15.0
0.7
3.2
35.7
29.3
4.7
11.4
9.0
9.3
19.1
10.6
7.0
13.1
19.3
7.1
Republic of Congo
3.3
3.2
3.2
0.4
1.2
0.4
1.4
2.0
3.0
3.5
3.2
3.0
3.2
3.5
3.2
Côte d’Ivoire
2.1
1.2
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.8
2.4
4.2
5.2
4.3
2.3
2.0
5.1
2.8
2.0
Equatorial Guinea
4.4
1.7
1.4
0.7
1.3
1.2
4.8
-0.1
4.9
2.4
4.0
2.0
5.0
1.7
5.2
Eritrea3
11.9
28.5
-5.6
-13.3
-14.4
1.3
Eswatini
6.9
5.0
7.8
6.2
4.8
2.6
3.9
3.7
4.8
5.5
5.0
4.3
5.6
5.6
4.3
Ethiopia
17.1
9.6
6.6
10.7
13.8
15.8
20.4
26.8
33.9
29.1
20.7
12.6
33.8
24.5
18.5
Gabon
1.6
-0.1
2.1
2.7
4.8
2.0
1.7
1.1
4.3
3.8
2.5
2.2
5.4
3.0
2.4
The Gambia
4.7
6.8
7.2
8.0
6.5
7.1
5.9
7.4
11.5
17.0
12.3
5.0
13.7
17.5
7.1
Ghana
11.5
17.2
17.5
12.4
9.8
7.1
9.9
10.0
31.9
42.2
23.2
8.0
54.1
31.3
15.0
Guinea
18.2
8.2
8.2
8.9
9.8
9.5
10.6
12.6
10.5
8.3
7.9
7.5
8.6
8.0
7.8
Guinea-Bissau
2.6
1.5
2.7
-0.2
0.4
0.3
1.5
3.3
7.9
7.0
3.0
2.0
9.5
1.8
3.0
Kenya
8.5
6.6
6.3
8.0
4.7
5.2
5.3
6.1
7.6
7.7
6.6
5.0
9.1
7.1
6.5
Lesotho
6.0
3.2
6.6
4.4
4.8
5.2
5.0
6.0
8.2
6.9
5.6
4.9
7.9
5.9
5.0
Liberia
9.2
7.7
8.8
12.4
23.5
27.0
17.0
7.8
7.6
10.6
8.0
4.9
9.2
12.1
6.0
Madagascar
9.3
7.4
6.1
8.6
8.6
5.6
4.2
5.8
8.2
10.5
8.8
6.0
10.8
9.3
8.6
Malawi
14.1
21.9
21.7
11.5
9.2
9.4
8.6
9.3
20.8
27.7
19.8
6.5
25.4
29.0
15.2
Mali
3.0
1.4
-1.8
2.4
1.9
-3.0
0.5
3.8
9.7
5.0
2.8
2.0
7.8
3.0
2.0
Mauritius
5.5
1.3
1.0
3.7
3.2
0.5
2.5
4.0
10.8
7.8
6.5
3.7
12.2
6.4
7.8
Mozambique
8.0
3.6
17.4
15.1
3.9
2.8
3.1
5.7
9.8
7.4
6.5
5.5
10.3
6.7
6.5
Namibia
6.0
3.4
6.7
6.1
4.3
3.7
2.2
3.6
6.1
6.0
4.9
4.9
6.9
5.3
5.3
Niger
2.5
1.0
0.2
0.2
2.8
-2.5
2.9
3.8
4.2
4.6
6.6
2.0
3.1
8.8
2.5
Nigeria
10.8
9.0
15.7
16.5
12.1
11.4
13.2
17.0
18.8
25.1
23.0
14.0
21.3
30.6
15.4
Rwanda
7.2
2.5
5.7
4.8
1.4
2.4
7.7
0.8
13.9
14.5
6.0
5.0
21.6
7.8
5.5
São Tomé and Príncipe
15.9
6.1
5.4
5.7
7.9
7.7
9.8
8.1
18.0
20.8
11.9
5.0
25.2
15.4
7.2
Senegal
1.9
0.9
1.2
1.1
0.5
1.0
2.5
2.2
9.7
6.1
3.3
-12.4
12.8
4.2
0.3
Seychelles
7.9
4.0
-1.0
2.9
3.7
1.8
1.2
9.8
2.6
-0.8
2.0
3.5
2.5
-1.1
2.4
Sierra Leone
8.7
6.7
10.9
18.2
16.0
14.8
13.4
11.9
27.2
42.9
29.8
8.9
37.1
37.8
21.7
South Africa
6.0
4.6
6.3
5.3
4.6
4.1
3.3
4.6
6.9
5.8
4.8
4.5
7.4
5.2
4.5
South Sudan
53.0
346.1
213.0
83.4
49.3
24.0
30.2
-3.2
16.3
13.6
7.9
-13.0
45.6
6.1
Tanzania
9.0
5.6
5.2
5.3
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.7
4.4
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.9
4.0
4.0
Togo
2.7
1.8
0.9
-0.2
0.9
0.7
1.8
4.5
7.6
5.0
2.8
1.7
7.7
2.7
2.2
Uganda
9.2
3.7
5.2
5.6
2.5
2.1
2.8
2.2
7.2
5.8
4.7
5.0
10.2
3.5
5.0
Zambia
10.2
10.1
17.9
6.6
7.5
9.2
15.7
22.0
11.0
10.6
9.6
7.0
9.9
11.4
7.9
Zimbabwe3
-2.7
-2.4
-1.6
0.9
10.6
255.3
557.2
98.5
193.4
314.5
222.4
20.8
243.8
396.2
190.2
1Movements in consumer prices are shown as annual averages.
2Monthly year-over-year changes and, for several countries, on a quarterly basis.
3See the country-specific notes for Afghanistan, Argentina, Eritrea, Lebanon, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Türkiye, Ukraine, Venezuela, and Zimbabwe in the “Country Notes” section of the Statistical Appendix.
4Excludes Venezuela but includes Argentina from 2017 onward. See the country-specific notes for Argentina and Venezuela in the “Country Notes” section of the Statistical Appendix.
5Data for 2011 exclude South Sudan after July 9. Data for 2012 and onward pertain to the current Sudan.
6Data for Syria are excluded for 2011 onward owing to the uncertain political situation.
International Monetary Fund | October 2023
131
WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: NAVIGATING GLOBAL DIVERGENCES
Table A8. Major Advanced Economies: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt1
(Percent of GDP, unless noted otherwise)
Average
Projections
2005-14
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2028
Major Advanced Economies
Net Lending/Borrowing
-5.2
-3.0
-3.3
-3.3
-3.3
-3.8
-11.6
-9.1
-4.1
-6.5
-5.6
-5.0
Output Gap2
-2.2
-2.0
-1.7
-0.8
0.1
0.3
-3.2
0.0
0.7
0.6
0.2
0.5
Structural Balance2
-4.0
-2.2
-2.7
-3.0
-3.2
-3.8
-8.1
-8.1
-5.3
-6.5
-5.5
-5.2
United States
Net Lending/Borrowing3
-6.5
-3.5
-4.4
-4.8
-5.3
-5.7
-14.0
-11.6
-3.7
-8.2
-7.4
-7.0
Output Gap2
-4.0
-2.5
-2.1
-1.3
0.0
0.7
-2.5
1.5
1.4
1.4
0.8
0.9
Structural Balance2
-4.4
-2.5
-3.6
-4.3
-5.1
-6.0
-10.7
-11.3
-6.5
-8.8
-7.6
-7.3
Net Debt
63.9
80.9
81.8
80.4
81.1
83.1
98.3
98.3
95.1
96.7
100.7
111.6
Gross Debt
86.1
105.1
107.2
106.2
107.4
108.7
133.5
126.4
121.3
123.3
126.9
137.5
Euro Area
Net Lending/Borrowing
-3.3
-1.9
-1.5
-0.9
-0.4
-0.6
-7.1
-5.3
-3.6
-3.4
-2.7
-2.1
Output Gap2
-0.7
-2.4
-1.8
-0.6
-0.2
0.0
-4.8
-2.0
0.2
-0.4
-0.5
0.1
Structural Balance2
-2.7
-0.5
-0.5
-0.4
-0.2
-0.5
-3.9
-3.5
-2.4
-2.7
-2.4
-2.1
Net Debt
64.6
75.1
74.6
72.5
70.8
69.2
79.1
77.7
75.3
74.6
73.9
72.2
Gross Debt
80.2
90.9
90.1
87.7
85.7
83.7
96.8
94.8
91.0
89.6
88.3
84.9
Germany
Net Lending/Borrowing
-1.3
1.0
1.2
1.3
1.9
1.5
-4.3
-3.6
-2.5
-2.9
-1.7
-0.5
Output Gap2
-0.1
-0.4
0.1
1.0
0.8
0.4
-3.1
-1.1
0.6
-0.9
-1.1
0.0
Structural Balance2
-0.9
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.6
1.3
-2.9
-3.0
-2.1
-2.4
-1.1
-0.5
Net Debt
57.5
52.2
49.3
45.5
42.8
40.7
46.1
47.2
45.8
46.5
45.7
41.7
Gross Debt
73.3
71.9
69.0
65.2
61.9
59.5
68.7
69.0
66.1
65.9
64.0
57.5
France
Net Lending/Borrowing
-4.4
-3.6
-3.6
-3.0
-2.3
-3.1
-9.0
-6.5
-4.8
-4.9
-4.5
-3.6
Output Gap2
-0.6
-2.4
-2.7
-1.5
-0.8
0.0
-4.7
-1.9
-0.9
-0.8
-0.7
0.1
Structural Balance2
-4.0
-2.1
-1.9
-1.9
-1.5
-2.1
-5.8
-5.1
-4.2
-4.3
-4.1
-3.7
Net Debt
70.3
86.3
89.2
89.4
89.2
88.9
101.2
100.4
101.4
99.6
100.1
100.4
Gross Debt
80.0
95.6
98.0
98.1
97.8
97.4
114.7
113.0
111.8
110.0
110.5
110.8
Italy4
Net Lending/Borrowing
-3.3
-2.6
-2.4
-2.4
-2.2
-1.5
-9.7
-9.0
-8.0
-5.0
-4.0
-2.5
Output Gap2
-1.2
-4.4
-3.5
-2.2
-1.6
-1.5
-6.7
-4.0
-0.4
-0.4
-0.5
0.3
Structural Balance2
-2.9
-0.2
-0.8
-1.3
-1.4
-0.7
-5.6
-4.8
-1.9
-2.1
-3.4
-2.7
Net Debt
106.7
122.2
121.6
121.3
121.8
121.7
141.5
137.4
132.7
132.6
132.5
130.6
Gross Debt
117.3
135.3
134.8
134.2
134.4
134.1
154.9
149.9
144.4
143.7
143.2
140.1
Japan
Net Lending/Borrowing
-6.4
-3.7
-3.6
-3.1
-2.5
-3.0
-9.1
-6.2
-6.9
-5.6
-3.7
-3.3
Output Gap2
0.2
-0.2
0.1
1.0
1.9
0.7
-2.9
-1.6
-0.9
0.2
0.3
0.0
Structural Balance2
-6.2
-4.5
-4.5
-3.7
-3.0
-3.3
-8.1
-5.5
-6.8
-5.7
-3.8
-3.3
Net Debt
120.8
144.5
149.5
148.1
151.1
151.7
162.3
156.7
161.5
158.5
155.8
153.2
Gross Debt5
201.5
228.3
232.4
231.3
232.4
236.4
258.6
255.1
260.1
255.2
251.9
252.8
United Kingdom4
Net Lending/Borrowing
-5.9
-4.5
-3.3
-2.4
-2.2
-2.2
-13.0
-8.3
-5.5
-4.5
-3.9
-3.5
Output Gap2
-2.7
-2.6
-2.2
-1.3
-1.0
-0.8
-3.6
0.5
1.8
0.1
-1.0
0.0
Structural Balance2
-3.9
-2.5
-1.6
-1.3
-1.4
-1.6
0.8
-3.6
-3.8
-3.3
-2.4
-3.5
Net Debt
57.5
78.2
77.6
76.2
75.4
74.6
93.6
94.1
98.9
99.0
99.6
96.5
Gross Debt
64.1
86.7
86.6
85.6
85.2
84.5
104.6
105.2
101.9
104.1
105.9
108.2
Canada
Net Lending/Borrowing
-1.0
-0.1
-0.5
-0.1
0.4
0.0
-10.9
-4.4
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.2
Output Gap2
0.1
-0.1
-0.9
0.4
0.6
0.4
-3.4
-1.4
0.8
0.0
-0.4
0.0
Structural Balance2
-1.1
0.0
0.0
-0.3
0.0
-0.2
-8.1
-3.3
-1.4
-0.8
-0.4
-0.2
Net Debt6
25.9
18.5
18.0
12.5
11.6
8.5
15.7
15.4
14.2
14.6
14.6
13.8
Gross Debt
78.9
92.0
92.4
90.9
90.8
90.2
118.9
115.1
107.4
106.4
103.3
94.7
Note: The methodology and specific assumptions for each country are discussed in Box A1. The country group composites for fiscal data are calculated as the sum of the US dollar values for the
relevant individual countries.
1Debt data refer to the end of the year and are not always comparable across countries. Gross and net debt levels reported by national statistical agencies for countries that have adopted the
System of National Accounts 2008 (Australia, Canada, Hong Kong SAR, United States) are adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities of government employees’ defined-benefit pension
plans.
2Percent of potential GDP.
3Figures reported by the national statistical agency are adjusted to exclude items related to the accrual-basis accounting of government employees’ defined-benefit pension plans.
4See the country-specific notes for Italy and the United Kingdom in the “Country Notes” section of the Statistical Appendix.
5Nonconsolidated basis.
6Includes equity shares.
132
International Monetary Fund | October 2023
STATISTICAL APPENDIX
Table A9. Summary of World Trade Volumes and Prices
(Annual percent change, unless noted otherwise)
Averages
Projections
2005-14
2015-24
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Trade in Goods and Services
World Trade1
Volume
4.7
2.8
2.9
2.2
5.6
4.0
1.2
-7.8
10.9
5.1
0.9
3.5
Price Deflator
In US Dollars
2.9
0.5
-13.2
-4.0
4.3
5.4
-2.5
-2.1
12.5
6.8
-1.7
1.6
In SDRs
2.6
1.7
-5.8
-3.4
4.6
3.3
-0.1
-2.9
10.0
13.8
-1.9
1.5
Volume of Trade
Exports
Advanced Economies
4.0
2.6
3.8
2.0
5.0
3.5
1.5
-8.8
9.8
5.3
1.8
3.1
Emerging Market and Developing Economies
6.3
3.1
1.9
2.8
6.5
4.2
0.8
-5.1
12.8
4.1
-0.1
4.2
Imports
Advanced Economies
3.2
2.9
4.8
2.5
4.8
3.8
2.1
-8.2
10.3
6.7
0.1
3.0
Emerging Market and Developing Economies
8.0
2.4
-0.7
1.5
7.4
5.1
-0.9
-7.9
11.8
3.2
1.7
4.4
Terms of Trade
Advanced Economies
-0.3
0.3
1.8
1.1
-0.2
-0.4
0.1
0.9
0.8
-2.0
0.2
0.5
Emerging Market and Developing Economies
1.2
-0.5
-3.9
-1.5
1.4
1.0
-1.6
-0.8
0.7
0.9
-1.5
0.2
Trade in Goods
World Trade1
Volume
4.5
2.6
2.3
2.1
5.6
3.8
0.2
-5.0
11.2
3.4
-0.3
3.2
Price Deflator
In US Dollars
3.0
0.4
-14.6
-4.8
4.9
5.8
-3.1
-2.6
14.2
8.3
-2.5
1.5
In SDRs
2.7
1.7
-7.2
-4.2
5.2
3.6
-0.7
-3.4
11.6
15.4
-2.7
1.4
World Trade Prices in US Dollars2
Manufactures
1.9
0.7
-3.0
-5.2
0.1
2.0
0.5
-3.2
6.6
10.1
-1.8
2.3
Oil
9.8
-1.8
-47.1
-15.0
22.5
29.4
-10.4
-32.0
65.8
39.2
-16.5
-0.7
Nonfuel Primary Commodities
6.2
1.8
-17.0
-0.3
6.4
1.3
0.7
6.6
26.7
7.9
-6.3
-2.7
Food
4.6
1.3
-16.9
1.5
3.8
-1.2
-3.1
1.7
27.0
14.8
-6.8
-1.9
Beverages
8.4
0.3
-7.4
-3.0
-3.8
-9.2
-5.7
2.4
22.4
14.1
0.5
-3.1
Agricultural Raw Materials
3.1
-1.0
-11.3
-0.2
5.4
2.0
-5.4
-3.4
15.5
5.7
-15.1
0.5
Metal
8.0
1.7
-27.3
-5.3
22.2
6.6
3.9
3.5
46.7
-5.6
-4.7
-7.1
World Trade Prices in SDRs2
Manufactures
1.6
2.0
5.3
-4.6
0.3
-0.1
3.0
-3.9
4.3
17.3
-2.0
2.2
Oil
9.5
-0.6
-42.6
-14.5
22.8
26.7
-8.2
-32.6
62.1
48.2
-16.6
-0.8
Nonfuel Primary Commodities
5.9
3.1
-9.9
0.4
6.7
-0.8
3.2
5.7
23.9
14.9
-6.4
-2.7
Food
4.4
2.6
-9.8
2.2
4.1
-3.3
-0.7
0.9
24.1
22.3
-6.9
-1.9
Beverages
8.2
1.6
0.5
-2.3
-3.5
-11.1
-3.4
1.6
19.7
21.6
0.3
-3.1
Agricultural Raw Materials
2.8
0.3
-3.7
0.5
5.7
-0.1
-3.1
-4.2
12.9
12.6
-15.3
0.4
Metal
7.7
3.0
-21.1
-4.7
22.5
4.4
6.4
2.6
43.4
0.6
-4.9
-7.2
World Trade Prices in Euros2
Manufactures
1.2
2.7
16.2
-5.0
-1.9
-2.5
6.1
-5.0
2.8
23.6
-4.9
1.7
Oil
9.1
0.1
-36.7
-14.8
20.0
23.6
-5.4
-33.3
59.9
56.3
-19.1
-1.2
Nonfuel Primary Commodities
5.5
3.8
-0.7
0.0
4.3
-3.2
6.2
4.5
22.2
21.2
-9.2
-3.1
Food
3.9
3.3
-0.5
1.8
1.7
-5.6
2.3
-0.2
22.4
29.0
-9.7
-2.4
Beverages
7.7
2.3
10.9
-2.7
-5.7
-13.2
-0.5
0.5
18.1
28.2
-2.7
-3.5
Agricultural Raw Materials
2.4
1.0
6.3
0.1
3.3
-2.5
-0.2
-5.2
11.3
18.8
-17.8
0.0
Metal
7.3
3.7
-12.9
-5.0
19.7
1.9
9.6
1.5
41.5
6.0
-7.7
-7.6
International Monetary Fund | October 2023
133
WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: NAVIGATING GLOBAL DIVERGENCES
Table A9. Summary of World Trade Volumes and Prices (continued)
(Annual percent change, unless noted otherwise)
Averages
Projections
2005-14
2015-24
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Trade in Goods (continued)
Volume of Trade
Exports
Advanced Economies
3.7
2.4
3.1
1.6
4.9
3.0
0.6
-6.3
10.1
3.6
1.1
2.8
Emerging Market and Developing Economies
6.1
2.8
1.4
2.6
6.5
3.9
-0.5
-1.2
12.0
1.2
-1.4
3.8
Fuel Exporters
Nonfuel Exporters
6.8
3.1
1.1
2.9
7.5
4.8
0.1
-0.3
13.2
0.4
-1.6
3.8
Imports
Advanced Economies
3.1
2.6
3.7
2.2
4.8
3.7
0.6
-5.7
11.2
5.3
-1.2
2.7
Emerging Market and Developing Economies
7.7
2.7
-0.3
2.1
7.4
5.2
-0.1
-5.6
12.3
2.2
0.6
3.8
Fuel Exporters
Nonfuel Exporters
7.5
3.1
-0.3
3.6
8.7
6.3
-0.4
-4.8
13.5
1.4
0.2
3.9
Price Deflators in SDRs
Exports
Advanced Economies
1.7
1.5
-6.4
-2.2
4.3
2.8
-1.4
-2.2
10.0
12.2
-2.2
2.0
Emerging Market and Developing Economies
5.1
1.8
-9.1
-6.9
7.1
4.9
0.3
-5.6
15.1
19.2
-4.3
0.8
Fuel Exporters
Nonfuel Exporters
4.3
2.2
-3.6
-6.3
5.5
3.1
1.1
-2.7
12.0
16.3
-2.7
1.1
Imports
Advanced Economies
2.1
1.4
-8.0
-3.5
4.5
3.4
-1.5
-3.4
9.4
14.8
-1.9
1.7
Emerging Market and Developing Economies
3.7
2.2
-5.1
-5.5
5.7
3.7
0.7
-3.0
13.9
16.6
-3.0
0.8
Fuel Exporters
Nonfuel Exporters
3.6
2.2
-5.5
-5.9
6.1
4.0
0.4
-3.2
14.3
16.6
-3.1
0.6
Terms of Trade
Advanced Economies
-0.4
0.2
1.8
1.3
-0.2
-0.6
0.1
1.2
0.6
-2.3
-0.3
0.3
Emerging Market and Developing Economies
1.4
-0.5
-4.2
-1.5
1.3
1.1
-0.4
-2.7
1.0
2.2
-1.3
0.0
Regional Groups
Emerging and Developing Asia
-0.3
-0.1
8.1
0.2
-3.4
-2.4
1.1
0.6
-6.9
0.7
-0.2
1.5
Emerging and Developing Europe
2.1
0.1
-9.3
-5.5
3.4
4.3
0.4
-4.2
8.4
2.9
0.9
0.9
Latin America and the Caribbean
1.8
-0.2
-8.8
0.9
4.5
-0.7
-0.7
2.3
4.8
-3.2
2.7
-3.2
Middle East and Central Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
3.6
-0.4
-14.6
-1.4
9.4
5.0
-2.0
-0.2
11.0
-0.9
-6.5
-1.1
Analytical Groups
By Source of Export Earnings
Fuel
Nonfuel
0.7
0.0
2.1
-0.4
-0.5
-0.9
0.8
0.5
-2.0
-0.2
0.4
0.5
Memorandum
World Exports in Billions of US Dollars
Goods and Services
19,137
25,944
21,135
20,760
22,906
25,097
24,705
22,327
27,937
31,188
30,868
32,514
Goods
15,165
19,825
16,191
15,736
17,450
19,099
18,531
17,203
21,814
24,200
23,451
24,576
Average Oil Price3
9.8
-1.8
-47.1
-15.0
22.5
29.4
-10.4
-32.0
65.8
39.2
-16.5
-0.7
In US Dollars a Barrel
83.62
64.49
50.91
43.26
52.98
68.53
61.43
41.77
69.25
96.36
80.49
79.92
Export Unit Value of Manufactures4
1.9
0.7
-3.0
-5.2
0.1
2.0
0.5
-3.2
6.6
10.1
-1.8
2.3
1Average of annual percent change for world exports and imports.
2As represented, respectively, by the export unit value index for manufactures of the advanced economies and accounting for 82 percent of the advanced economies’ trade (export of goods)
weights; the average of UK Brent, Dubai Fateh, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices; and the average of world market prices for nonfuel primary commodities weighted by their 2014-16
shares in world commodity imports.
3Percent change of average of UK Brent, Dubai Fateh, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices.
4Percent change for manufactures exported by advanced economies.
134
International Monetary Fund | October 2023
STATISTICAL APPENDIX
Table A10. Summary of Current Account Balances
(Billions of US dollars)
Projections
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2028
Advanced Economies
269.2
362.3
470.6
383.7
388.3
157.4
502.7
-234.8
111.3
192.9
286.8
United States
-408.5
-396.2
-367.6
-439.8
-441.8
-597.1
-831.4
-971.6
-795.1
-783.2
-777.3
Euro Area
317.0
360.1
394.9
382.1
323.8
230.0
416.3
-106.0
186.6
223.6
343.5
Germany
288.3
299.0
289.1
316.2
317.8
274.2
329.8
170.8
265.6
309.1
331.0
France
-9.0
-12.0
-19.9
-23.2
14.0
-42.8
10.7
-56.8
-37.5
-41.2
-14.0
Italy
26.6
49.7
52.1
54.5
66.6
73.1
65.0
-24.5
15.3
19.8
53.6
Spain
24.2
39.1
36.4
26.7
29.4
7.9
11.0
8.7
33.2
33.7
35.3
Japan
136.4
197.8
203.5
177.8
176.3
149.9
196.8
90.6
141.2
157.0
167.5
United Kingdom
-148.8
-148.7
-96.9
-117.3
-80.9
-86.6
-46.9
-116.1
-122.0
-131.4
-162.0
Canada
-54.4
-47.2
-46.2
-41.0
-34.1
-35.5
-5.4
-7.0
-20.9
-21.4
-55.3
Other Advanced Economies1
349.6
328.0
332.1
333.1
344.0
382.5
588.5
591.8
539.3
546.8
575.9
Emerging Market and Developing Economies
-94.6
-111.7
-32.5
-64.1
-10.4
143.9
363.7
645.7
195.8
171.1
-196.8
Regional Groups
Emerging and Developing Asia
293.1
209.1
163.5
-54.0
93.2
319.2
286.5
296.8
190.5
171.2
2.8
Emerging and Developing Europe
31.4
-10.3
-25.0
62.7
49.4
2.0
66.5
123.1
-20.7
-13.5
-51.5
Latin America and the Caribbean
-181.9
-109.4
-99.1
-146.1
-112.8
-15.8
-102.9
-142.3
-115.3
-103.9
-109.5
Middle East and Central Asia
-144.3
-146.6
-38.2
111.4
15.6
-116.0
132.0
406.8
194.6
176.0
26.3
Sub-Saharan Africa
-92.9
-54.5
-33.7
-38.1
-55.8
-45.5
-18.4
-38.7
-53.3
-58.7
-64.8
Analytical Groups
By Source of Export Earnings
Fuel
-150.7
-98.8
40.5
199.7
67.9
-95.1
187.9
505.8
247.2
235.7
102.5
Nonfuel
58.0
-10.8
-70.8
-261.7
-76.5
241.0
177.6
142.7
-48.7
-62.0
-296.6
Of which, Primary Products
-60.9
-40.7
-51.5
-57.0
-27.6
5.1
10.1
-27.5
-32.6
-25.6
-24.8
By External Financing Source
Net Debtor Economies
-340.4
-236.5
-271.0
-366.3
-267.1
-105.0
-333.9
-472.8
-372.4
-384.4
-504.7
Net Debtor Economies by
Debt-Servicing Experience
Economies with Arrears and/or
Rescheduling during 2018-22
-80.6
-76.7
-63.8
-53.9
-52.2
-35.4
-38.1
-33.3
-46.0
-56.7
-57.8
Memorandum
World
174.6
250.6
438.1
319.6
377.9
301.3
866.4
410.9
307.2
364.0
90.0
European Union
432.2
467.5
482.8
490.2
469.6
410.7
634.4
178.2
431.5
479.1
582.7
Middle East and North Africa
-121.7
-122.4
-20.2
128.7
34.7
-99.2
132.2
392.7
194.5
178.0
55.2
Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies
-18.1
-67.5
2.4
-8.0
45.3
195.5
441.6
740.2
262.6
240.3
-103.0
Low-Income Developing Countries
-76.6
-44.1
-34.9
-56.1
-55.7
-51.6
-77.9
-94.6
-66.8
-69.2
-93.8
International Monetary Fund | October 2023
135
WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: NAVIGATING GLOBAL DIVERGENCES
Table A10. Summary of Current Account Balances (continued)
(Percent of GDP)
Projections
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2028
Advanced Economies
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.7
0.7
0.3
0.9
-0.4
0.2
0.3
0.4
United States
-2.2
-2.1
-1.9
-2.1
-2.1
-2.8
-3.6
-3.8
-3.0
-2.8
-2.4
Euro Area
2.7
3.0
3.1
2.8
2.4
1.8
2.8
-0.7
1.2
1.4
1.8
Germany
8.6
8.6
7.8
8.0
8.2
7.1
7.7
4.2
6.0
6.6
6.1
France
-0.4
-0.5
-0.8
-0.8
0.5
-1.6
0.4
-2.0
-1.2
-1.3
-0.4
Italy2
1.4
2.6
2.7
2.6
3.3
3.9
3.1
-1.2
0.7
0.9
2.1
Spain
2.0
3.2
2.8
1.9
2.1
0.6
0.8
0.6
2.1
2.0
1.8
Japan
3.1
4.0
4.1
3.5
3.4
3.0
3.9
2.1
3.3
3.7
3.2
United Kingdom2
-5.1
-5.5
-3.6
-4.1
-2.8
-3.2
-1.5
-3.8
-3.7
-3.7
-3.5
Canada
-3.5
-3.1
-2.8
-2.4
-2.0
-2.2
-0.3
-0.3
-1.0
-1.0
-2.0
Other Advanced Economies1
5.4
5.0
4.7
4.4
4.7
5.2
7.0
7.0
6.2
6.1
5.3
Emerging Market and Developing Economies
-0.3
-0.4
-0.1
-0.2
0.0
0.4
0.9
1.5
0.4
0.4
-0.3
Regional Groups
Emerging and Developing Asia
1.9
1.3
0.9
-0.3
0.5
1.5
1.2
1.2
0.7
0.6
0.0
Emerging and Developing Europe
1.0
-0.3
-0.7
1.6
1.3
0.1
1.5
2.6
-0.4
-0.3
-0.8
Latin America and the Caribbean
-3.5
-2.2
-1.8
-2.7
-2.1
-0.4
-2.0
-2.4
-1.8
-1.5
-1.3
Middle East and Central Asia
-3.9
-4.0
-1.0
2.9
0.4
-3.4
3.3
8.6
4.1
3.6
0.4
Sub-Saharan Africa
-5.7
-3.6
-2.1
-2.2
-3.2
-2.7
-1.0
-1.9
-2.7
-2.8
-2.3
Analytical Groups
By Source of Export Earnings
Fuel
-4.3
-3.0
1.2
5.5
1.9
-3.2
5.3
11.6
5.8
5.3
1.9
Nonfuel
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.8
-0.2
0.8
0.5
0.4
-0.1
-0.1
-0.6
Of which, Primary Products
-3.7
-2.6
-3.0
-3.4
-1.7
0.4
0.6
-1.5
-1.7
-1.3
-1.1
By External Financing Source
Net Debtor Economies
-2.6
-1.8
-1.9
-2.5
-1.7
-0.7
-2.1
-2.7
-1.9
-1.9
-1.9
Net Debtor Economies by
Debt-Servicing Experience
Economies with Arrears and/or
Rescheduling during 2018-22
-5.9
-5.7
-4.9
-3.9
-3.6
-2.5
-2.4
-1.9
-2.7
-3.3
-2.4
Memorandum
World
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.9
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.1
European Union
3.2
3.4
3.3
3.1
3.0
2.7
3.7
1.1
2.4
2.5
2.6
Middle East and North Africa
-4.1
-4.1
-0.7
4.1
1.1
-3.6
4.1
10.2
5.2
4.6
1.2
Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies
-0.1
-0.2
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.6
1.2
1.9
0.6
0.6
-0.2
Low-Income Developing Countries
-3.8
-2.2
-1.7
-2.6
-2.4
-2.2
-3.1
-3.5
-2.4
-2.4
-2.2
136
International Monetary Fund | October 2023
STATISTICAL APPENDIX
Table A10. Summary of Current Account Balances (continued)
(Percent of exports of goods and services)
Projections
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2028
Advanced Economies
2.0
2.7
3.2
2.4
2.5
1.1
2.9
-1.2
0.6
1.0
1.2
United States
-17.9
-17.7
-15.4
-17.3
-17.3
-27.6
-32.4
-32.2
-26.4
-25.4
-21.2
Euro Area
9.8
11.1
11.1
9.9
8.5
6.6
10.0
-2.4
Germany
18.3
18.7
16.6
16.8
17.3
16.2
16.3
8.3
12.4
13.8
13.0
France
-1.2
-1.5
-2.4
-2.5
1.6
-5.7
1.2
-5.6
-3.7
-3.9
-1.2
Italy
4.9
9.0
8.6
8.3
10.5
13.1
9.4
-3.3
1.9
2.3
5.5
Spain
6.0
9.4
7.9
5.3
6.0
2.0
2.2
1.5
5.2
5.0
4.3
Japan
17.4
24.4
23.2
19.1
19.5
18.9
21.4
9.8
15.1
15.6
14.6
United Kingdom
-18.3
-19.1
-11.8
-13.0
-9.1
-10.9
-5.2
-11.5
-11.9
-11.9
-12.0
Canada
-11.0
-9.8
-8.9
-7.4
-6.0
-7.3
-0.9
-1.0
-3.0
-3.0
-6.4
Other Advanced Economies1
9.4
9.0
8.3
7.7
8.2
9.7
11.9
11.0
10.1
9.7
8.5
Emerging Market and Developing Economies
-1.1
-1.5
-0.4
-0.8
-0.2
1.8
3.4
5.1
1.6
1.3
-1.4
Regional Groups
Emerging and Developing Asia
7.7
5.7
4.0
-1.2
2.1
7.3
5.1
4.9
3.2
2.8
0.0
Emerging and Developing Europe
2.7
-0.9
-1.9
4.2
3.3
0.1
3.8
6.3
-1.1
-0.7
-2.2
Latin America and the Caribbean
-16.7
-10.3
-8.4
-11.4
-9.0
-1.5
-7.4
-8.6
-6.9
-5.9
-5.3
Middle East and Central Asia
-10.8
-12.1
-3.2
6.4
0.7
-10.1
8.7
18.7
9.7
8.2
0.8
Sub-Saharan Africa
-27.0
-17.1
-9.1
-9.0
-13.6
-13.5
-4.1
-7.4
-10.5
-11.1
-10.2
Analytical Groups
By Source of Export Earnings
Fuel
-11.5
-8.3
2.7
12.2
4.4
-8.7
12.8
24.0
13.1
11.9
4.6
Nonfuel
0.9
-0.2
-1.0
-3.4
-1.0
3.4
1.9
1.4
-0.5
-0.6
-2.3
Of which, Primary Products
-18.6
-12.5
-14.1
-14.5
-7.1
1.5
2.2
-5.5
-6.6
-4.8
-3.8
By External Financing Source
Net Debtor Economies
-9.9
-6.9
-6.9
-8.5
-6.2
-2.7
-6.9
-8.3
-6.5
-6.3
-6.6
Net Debtor Economies by
Debt-Servicing Experience
Economies with Arrears and/or
Rescheduling during 2018-22
-24.2
-25.0
-18.0
-13.4
-12.9
-10.4
-8.8
-6.8
-9.7
-11.3
-9.1
Memorandum
World
0.9
1.2
1.9
1.2
1.5
1.4
3.1
1.3
1.0
1.1
0.2
European Union
6.7
7.2
6.7
6.2
6.0
5.7
7.2
1.9
4.4
4.7
4.8
Middle East and North Africa
-10.1
-11.2
-2.1
8.4
2.3
-9.7
9.9
20.4
11.0
9.5
2.4
Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies
-0.1
-0.9
0.0
-0.2
0.5
2.6
4.5
6.3
2.3
2.0
-0.8
Low-Income Developing Countries
-15.9
-9.2
-6.2
-8.8
-8.1
-8.2
-10.4
-10.8
-7.7
-7.4
-7.1
1Excludes the Group of Seven (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States) and euro area countries.
2See the country-specific notes for Italy and the United Kingdom in the “Country Notes” section of the Statistical Appendix.
International Monetary Fund | October 2023
137
WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: NAVIGATING GLOBAL DIVERGENCES
Table A11. Advanced Economies: Current Account Balance
(Percent of GDP)
Projections
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2028
Advanced Economies
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.7
0.7
0.3
0.9
-0.4
0.2
0.3
0.4
United States
-2.2
-2.1
-1.9
-2.1
-2.1
-2.8
-3.6
-3.8
-3.0
-2.8
-2.4
Euro Area1
2.7
3.0
3.1
2.8
2.4
1.8
2.8
-0.7
1.2
1.4
1.8
Germany
8.6
8.6
7.8
8.0
8.2
7.1
7.7
4.2
6.0
6.6
6.1
France
-0.4
-0.5
-0.8
-0.8
0.5
-1.6
0.4
-2.0
-1.2
-1.3
-0.4
Italy2
1.4
2.6
2.7
2.6
3.3
3.9
3.1
-1.2
0.7
0.9
2.1
Spain
2.0
3.2
2.8
1.9
2.1
0.6
0.8
0.6
2.1
2.0
1.8
The Netherlands
5.2
7.1
8.9
9.3
6.9
5.1
12.1
9.2
7.6
7.6
7.3
Belgium
1.4
0.6
0.7
-0.9
0.1
1.1
0.4
-3.6
-2.7
-1.9
-0.3
Ireland
4.4
-4.2
0.5
4.9
-19.9
-6.5
13.7
10.8
7.8
7.2
5.8
Austria
1.7
2.7
1.4
0.9
2.4
3.0
0.4
0.7
0.1
0.0
0.3
Portugal
0.2
1.2
1.3
0.6
0.4
-1.0
-0.8
-1.2
1.3
1.1
0.2
Greece
-1.5
-2.4
-2.6
-3.6
-2.2
-7.3
-7.1
-10.1
-6.9
-6.0
-3.2
Finland
-0.9
-2.0
-0.8
-1.8
-0.3
0.5
0.4
-3.6
-1.7
-0.9
-0.4
Slovak Republic
-2.1
-2.7
-1.9
-2.2
-3.3
0.6
-2.5
-8.2
-2.7
-4.0
-2.1
Croatia
3.3
2.2
3.5
1.8
2.9
-0.5
1.8
-1.6
-0.2
-0.4
0.2
Lithuania
-2.4
-1.1
0.5
0.3
3.5
7.3
1.1
-5.1
0.0
0.9
1.8
Slovenia
3.8
4.8
6.2
5.9
5.9
7.2
3.3
-1.0
4.4
3.8
1.9
Luxembourg
4.8
4.8
4.7
3.7
3.4
3.2
4.6
3.6
3.7
4.0
4.2
Latvia
-0.6
1.6
1.2
-0.2
-0.6
2.9
-3.9
-4.7
-3.0
-2.4
-2.0
Estonia
1.8
1.2
2.3
0.9
2.4
-1.0
-1.8
-2.9
1.8
2.6
1.1
Cyprus
-0.4
-4.2
-5.0
-4.0
-5.6
-10.1
-6.8
-9.1
-8.6
-7.9
-7.6
Malta
2.7
-0.6
5.9
5.6
9.0
2.2
1.2
-5.7
-3.0
-2.9
-0.5
Japan
3.1
4.0
4.1
3.5
3.4
3.0
3.9
2.1
3.3
3.7
3.2
United Kingdom2
-5.1
-5.5
-3.6
-4.1
-2.8
-3.2
-1.5
-3.8
-3.7
-3.7
-3.5
Korea
7.2
6.5
4.6
4.5
3.6
4.6
4.7
1.8
1.3
1.7
3.1
Canada
-3.5
-3.1
-2.8
-2.4
-2.0
-2.2
-0.3
-0.3
-1.0
-1.0
-2.0
Taiwan Province of China
13.6
13.1
14.1
11.6
10.7
14.4
15.2
13.3
11.8
12.1
10.9
Australia
-4.6
-3.3
-2.6
-2.2
0.4
2.2
3.0
1.1
0.6
-0.7
-0.9
Switzerland
8.9
7.3
5.3
5.6
3.9
0.4
8.6
10.2
8.0
8.0
8.0
Singapore
18.7
17.8
18.1
15.7
16.2
16.5
18.0
19.3
16.6
15.2
11.8
Sweden
3.2
2.2
2.8
2.5
5.3
5.9
6.8
4.8
5.4
5.4
4.0
Hong Kong SAR
3.3
4.0
4.6
3.7
5.9
7.0
11.8
10.6
7.1
6.3
5.2
Czech Republic
0.4
1.8
1.5
0.4
0.3
2.0
-2.8
-6.1
0.5
1.7
2.2
Israel
5.2
3.8
3.7
3.0
3.4
5.4
4.2
3.4
4.2
4.0
3.5
Norway
9.0
5.2
6.3
9.0
3.8
1.1
13.6
30.2
26.2
25.4
17.5
Denmark
8.2
7.8
8.0
7.3
8.5
8.1
9.1
13.5
11.4
9.9
8.9
New Zealand
-2.8
-2.0
-2.8
-4.2
-2.9
-1.0
-6.0
-9.0
-7.9
-6.5
-4.2
Puerto Rico
Macao SAR
23.3
26.5
30.8
33.0
33.7
14.9
5.8
-23.5
19.9
32.4
35.8
Iceland
5.6
8.1
4.2
4.3
6.5
0.9
-3.0
-2.0
-0.6
-0.4
1.0
Andorra
18.0
14.6
16.1
17.0
17.9
18.4
18.9
San Marino
-0.4
-1.9
2.0
2.8
6.5
8.0
3.8
2.9
1.3
Memorandum
Major Advanced Economies
-0.5
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
0.0
-0.7
-0.7
-2.1
-1.2
-1.0
-0.8
Euro Area3
3.4
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.1
2.6
4.1
1.3
2.4
2.6
2.9
1Data corrected for reporting discrepancies in intra-area transactions.
2See the country-specific notes for Italy and the United Kingdom in the “Country Notes” section of the Statistical Appendix.
3Data calculated as the sum of the balances of individual euro area countries.
138
International Monetary Fund | October 2023
STATISTICAL APPENDIX
Table A12. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Current Account Balance
(Percent of GDP)
Projections
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2028
Emerging and Developing Asia
1.9
1.3
0.9
-0.3
0.5
1.5
1.2
1.2
0.7
0.6
0.0
Bangladesh
1.2
1.6
-0.5
-3.0
-1.3
-1.5
-1.1
-4.1
-0.7
-0.8
-3.0
Bhutan
-27.9
-31.6
-23.6
-18.4
-20.5
-15.8
-12.0
-31.9
-29.4
-12.3
-10.9
Brunei Darussalam
16.7
12.9
16.4
6.9
6.6
4.5
11.2
19.6
10.6
11.6
14.0
Cambodia
-8.7
-8.5
-7.9
-11.8
-10.8
-3.4
-42.0
-27.3
-11.0
-8.0
-6.6
China
2.6
1.7
1.5
0.2
0.7
1.7
2.0
2.2
1.5
1.4
0.7
Fiji
-4.3
-3.5
-6.6
-8.5
-12.8
-13.7
-15.9
-17.3
-10.9
-10.7
-7.9
India
-1.0
-0.6
-1.8
-2.1
-0.9
0.9
-1.2
-2.0
-1.8
-1.8
-2.3
Indonesia
-2.0
-1.8
-1.6
-2.9
-2.7
-0.4
0.3
1.0
-0.3
-0.6
-1.5
Kiribati
33.0
10.8
37.4
38.8
49.5
40.0
8.9
-4.1
9.0
12.2
8.9
Lao P.D.R.
-22.3
-11.0
-11.2
-13.0
-9.1
-5.1
-0.6
-6.0
-2.6
-6.1
-5.7
Malaysia
3.0
2.4
2.8
2.2
3.5
4.2
3.9
3.1
2.7
2.8
3.0
Maldives
-7.5
-23.6
-21.0
-28.4
-26.6
-34.7
-8.5
-16.8
-16.4
-12.8
-9.3
Marshall Islands
11.5
10.0
-0.9
-2.1
-31.3
15.0
22.6
8.2
3.8
-1.1
-13.1
Micronesia
4.5
7.2
10.3
21.0
14.6
0.5
4.0
8.7
1.9
-4.2
-5.6
Mongolia
-8.2
-6.3
-10.1
-16.7
-15.2
-5.1
-13.8
-13.4
-10.9
-12.6
-8.0
Myanmar
-3.5
-4.2
-6.8
-4.7
-2.8
-3.4
-0.3
-4.3
-1.6
-1.5
-1.4
Nauru
-19.6
4.2
12.4
7.6
4.6
2.5
4.6
-0.5
5.8
0.0
-1.1
Nepal
4.4
5.5
-0.3
-7.1
-6.9
-1.0
-7.7
-12.7
-1.5
-4.6
-3.9
Palau
-13.4
-16.2
-22.9
-19.0
-30.8
-47.2
-43.3
-54.7
-57.3
-42.0
-26.9
Papua New Guinea
10.9
13.7
15.9
12.9
14.8
14.1
12.6
27.9
15.9
17.7
9.6
Philippines
2.4
-0.4
-0.7
-2.6
-0.8
3.2
-1.5
-4.5
-3.0
-2.6
-1.1
Samoa
-2.6
-4.2
-1.8
0.8
2.8
0.6
-14.5
-11.3
-3.3
-4.0
-1.2
Solomon Islands
-2.7
-3.5
-4.3
-3.0
-9.5
-1.6
-5.1
-12.1
-11.3
-9.6
-6.4
Sri Lanka1
-2.2
-2.0
-2.4
-3.0
-2.1
-1.4
-3.7
-1.0
Thailand
6.9
10.5
9.6
5.6
7.0
4.2
-2.1
-3.0
-0.2
1.9
3.3
Timor-Leste
12.8
-33.0
-17.8
-12.2
6.6
-14.3
1.3
5.0
-42.9
-49.5
-51.9
Tonga
-10.1
-6.5
-6.4
-6.3
-0.8
-5.3
-5.2
-6.3
-7.9
-7.1
-8.2
Tuvalu
-33.7
29.9
2.1
60.9
-22.2
16.3
24.1
4.6
2.2
-1.5
-5.0
Vanuatu
-7.4
-2.4
-6.4
8.7
27.8
7.9
0.8
-4.2
-4.1
-4.5
1.1
Vietnam
-0.9
0.2
-0.6
1.9
3.8
4.3
-2.2
-0.3
0.2
0.7
1.1
Emerging and Developing Europe
1.0
-0.3
-0.7
1.6
1.3
0.1
1.5
2.6
-0.4
-0.3
-0.8
Albania
-8.6
-7.6
-7.5
-6.8
-7.6
-8.7
-7.7
-6.0
-6.0
-5.9
-5.7
Belarus
-3.3
-3.4
-1.7
0.0
-1.9
-0.3
3.2
3.7
2.7
2.0
0.0
Bosnia and Herzegovina
-5.0
-4.7
-4.8
-3.2
-2.6
-3.3
-2.4
-4.5
-4.3
-3.8
-3.6
Bulgaria
0.0
3.1
3.3
0.9
1.9
0.0
-1.9
-0.7
0.0
0.1
-0.3
Hungary
2.3
4.5
2.0
0.2
-0.8
-1.1
-4.1
-8.0
-0.9
-1.6
0.5
Kosovo
-8.8
-8.0
-5.5
-7.6
-5.7
-7.0
-8.7
-10.5
-8.1
-7.4
-5.3
Moldova
-6.0
-3.6
-5.8
-10.8
-9.4
-7.7
-12.4
-14.4
-12.1
-10.9
-9.6
Montenegro
-11.0
-16.2
-16.1
-17.0
-14.3
-26.1
-9.2
-13.2
-10.7
-11.3
-13.7
North Macedonia
-1.8
-2.6
-0.8
0.2
-3.0
-2.9
-3.1
-6.0
-3.3
-3.3
-2.9
Poland
-1.3
-1.0
-1.2
-1.9
-0.2
2.5
-1.4
-3.0
1.0
0.3
-1.0
Romania
-0.8
-1.6
-3.1
-4.6
-4.9
-4.9
-7.2
-9.3
-7.3
-7.1
-6.3
Russia
5.0
1.9
2.0
7.0
3.9
2.4
6.6
10.5
3.4
4.0
2.3
Serbia
-3.5
-2.9
-5.2
-4.8
-6.9
-4.1
-4.3
-6.9
-2.3
-3.2
-4.2
Türkiye1
-3.1
-3.1
-4.7
-2.6
1.4
-4.4
-0.9
-5.3
-4.2
-3.0
-2.3
Ukraine1
1.7
-1.5
-2.2
-3.3
-2.7
3.3
-1.6
5.0
-5.7
-7.2
-3.8
Latin America and the Caribbean
-3.5
-2.2
-1.8
-2.7
-2.1
-0.4
-2.0
-2.4
-1.8
-1.5
-1.3
Antigua and Barbuda
2.2
-2.5
-8.0
-14.6
-7.2
-16.3
-15.6
-16.2
-12.5
-12.0
-10.2
Argentina
-2.7
-2.7
-4.8
-5.2
-0.8
0.7
1.4
-0.7
-0.6
1.2
1.0
Aruba
3.9
4.6
1.0
-0.5
2.6
-12.4
2.7
11.1
9.5
10.5
7.3
The Bahamas
-12.7
-12.5
-13.5
-9.5
-2.2
-23.4
-21.1
-13.6
-9.5
-8.8
-5.8
Barbados
-6.1
-4.3
-3.8
-4.0
-2.8
-5.9
-11.2
-11.1
-8.5
-7.8
-5.4
Belize
-7.9
-7.2
-6.9
-6.5
-7.6
-6.1
-6.3
-7.3
-6.1
-6.0
-5.5
Bolivia
-5.8
-5.6
-5.0
-4.3
-3.3
0.0
2.1
-0.4
-2.7
-3.3
-3.7
Brazil
-3.5
-1.7
-1.2
-2.9
-3.6
-1.9
-2.8
-2.8
-1.9
-1.8
-2.2
Chile
-2.7
-2.6
-2.8
-4.5
-5.2
-1.9
-7.3
-9.0
-3.5
-3.6
-3.0
Colombia
-6.4
-4.5
-3.2
-4.2
-4.6
-3.5
-5.6
-6.2
-4.9
-4.3
-3.9
International Monetary Fund | October 2023
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