Selected macroeconomic data
Trends in the economy and consumer behaviour
STRATEGIC REPORT
|
OVERVIEW
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RUSSIA’S FOOD RETAIL MARKET
26
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
FY
YEAR-ON-YEAR COMPARISON, %
RUSSIAN MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS,
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
FY
RUB/USD exchange rate, weighted average for the period
72.0
74.2
74.3
76.2
73.6
72.3
66.1
73.7
72.6
73.5
Real GDP
(2.7)
10.5
(0.7)
(1.8)
(3.5)
(7.8)
1.4
4.7
9.1
4.3
CPI
3.4
6.0
5.6
4.4
3.5
3.1
2.4
6.7
8.3
6.8
Food inflation
3.9
7.3
7.4
5.8
4.3
3.6
2.0
8.4
10.8
8.1
Real wage growth
3.8
5.5
1.6
2.2
1.8
(0.1)
6.2
2.9
2.8
2.0
Real income growth
(1.4)
7.9
(3.7)
0.5
(3.1)
(6.4)
3.0
3.4
0.8
8.1
Unemployment rate
5.8
4.9
5.6
6.1
6.3
6.0
4.6
4.8
4.3
4.4
Retail trade turnover, nominal
0.7
32.4
5.4
3.8
3.5
(12.1)
7.5
15.9
14.3
14.2
Food retail trade turnover, nominal
2.9
15.8
4.1
4.0
3.2
(2.5)
7.0
11.2
13.3
11.4
2020
2021
According to preliminary estimates, GDP grew by
4.7% in 2021. By the end of Q3 2021, the economy
had recovered to pre-crisis levels at the end of 2019.
GDP growth was driven by a recovery in the global
economy and strong domestic demand. The
average annual inflation rate increased from 3.4%
to 6.7%, while wage growth increased from 7.3%
to 9.8%. Lending to consumers accelerated to
20-25% despite the fact that the Bank of Russia
doubled the key rate (from 4.25% to 8.5%).
Monetary policy remained soft due to the simultaneous
increase in the key rate and inflation. The average
annual RUB/USD exchange rate was 73.7, compared
with 72.0 a year earlier. At the same time, the exchange
rate demonstrated low volatility due to high prices for
raw materials and limited service imports.
The rapid recovery in GDP was driven by a rebound in
external demand for commodities and domestic
demand resulting from the economic stimulus brought
about by the combination of fiscal and monetary
policies. Low interest rates across the economy and
the extension of subsidised mortgage interest rates
amid rising inflation and inflationary expectations
stimulated consumer demand.
The labour market experienced a shortage due to a
low influx of labour migrants and a high rate of
mortality. At the same time, the demand for labour
quickly recovered as the economy grew.
Unemployment reached a record low of 4.3% in
December 2021 (4.8% average in 2021). In addition, due
to the shrinking labour force, the number of people
unemployed reached a record low of 3.2 million.
The strongest demand for labour was seen in sectors
such as construction, retail trade and transport. Prior to
the pandemic, a considerable percentage of the
vacancies in these industries were filled by migrant
workers. As a result of imbalances in labour supply and
demand, wage growth accelerated from 7.3% to 9.8%
Wages and one-time cash benefits from the state were
key drivers of the growth in household incomes. On
average for the year, wages increased by almost 9.8%,
while the average annual inflation rate was 6.7%. The
total cash benefits paid out by the state in August and
September amounted to 0.5% of GDP, or almost RUB
700 billion. Up to two-thirds of these funds were used
for current consumption, including the food market.
Accelerating inflation threatened to offset any growth
in real disposable incomes, and increased inflationary
expectations stimulated lending.
Accelerating inflation both in Russia and throughout
the world was the result of volatile imbalances in supply
and demand in markets for goods and services as a
result of the simultaneous impact of stimulus policies
and ongoing pandemic restrictions on the functioning
of the economy. By the end of 2021, inflation had
increased to 8.4%, while food inflation reached 10.6%,
its highest point since 2015. In 2020, prices increased
by 4.9% and 6.7%, respectively.
In 2021, amid a recovery in household incomes, the
grocery retail market grew by 2.3% in real terms and by
11% in nominal terms. Overall, retail trade turnover
increased by 7.3% and 15.9%, respectively. Alongside
the increase in turnover, consumers adapted to rapidly
rising prices. Consumers began to take a more careful
approach to spending: they became more price-
sensitive, and their interest in promotions and
discounts increased.